THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

Possibly, but $8+ would be a better chacterisation on priced for perfection. At $6.10 they have a market cap of $751m. With a stated couple of year goal of $50m of profits that's a forward PE of 15. Perfection - no. Meeting stated goals - yes

Disc - holding.

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ? I don't really know the answer...but right at the minute perhaps the market is looking more favorably upon companies with more defensive earnings characteristics ?

[couta1]

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ? I don't really know the answer...but right at the minute perhaps the market is looking more favorably upon companies with more defensive earnings characteristics ?

The market is Irrational and Schizophrenic, that's the reason for most SP drops without any concrete reason. Actually now that I think about it, "the Don" also has those characteristics.

[sb9]

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ?

Their US earnings is not entirely dependant on Chinese or overseas tourists, they've enough people locally to fill the demand for their RVs.

If anything they've big tailwinds in terms of favourable exchange rate and recently announced lower tax rates for US corporates.

Long term story still intact and the current short term volatility is just passing cloud. Also, the current price might draw attractiveness that Chinese entity to up their stake further.

[Scrunch]

Interestingly if you use the anz securities 5yr chart there's 6 times that the share price has touched or spent a little bit of time around the 100 day ma. With hindsight each one would have been a good buying opportunity. Just saying.

[Balance]

Their US earnings is not entirely dependant on Chinese or overseas tourists, they've enough people locally to fill the demand for their RVs.

If anything they've big tailwinds in terms of favourable exchange rate and recently announced lower tax rates for US corporates.

Long term story still intact and the current short term volatility is just passing cloud. Also, the current price might draw attractiveness that Chinese entity to up their stake further.

Or are they trying to sell their stake?

[bull....]

Chinese tourist use rv. Are too small %

you probably right , 4.54m chines tourists go there out of roughly 40m tourists so % that drive rv probably small but growing

[winner69]

Or are they trying to sell their stake?

Heck no

thl is a gold mine ....even though it doesn’t generate much in the way of cash

[percy]

Posted just 4 days ago at $6.50.
Big break down through the 100 day MA which is $6.30 now to $6.10. Its had a marvelous run these last few years..market perhaps starting to wonder if there isn't at least some small element of cyclicality to THL's earnings ? http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...92/financials/
I don't think its expensive per se, but in a risk off environment I guess some might ask are their earnings as resilient as more defensive stocks ?

EPS growth may be causing concern.
…………………………………..2018...………………...2019...………..2020
eps...…………………………….37.9...…………………..38.1...………...42. 8
eps growth...…………………………………..053%...………….12.3%...……. av for 2 years 6.175%
PE ratio. 16.7...…………………...16.6...……….14.8..so PE ratio is 2.54 times eps growth.

[Beagle]

EPS growth may be causing concern.
…………………………………..2018...………………...2019...………..20 20
eps...…………………………….37.9...…………………..38.1...………...42. 8
eps growth...…………………………………..053%...………….12.3%...……. av for 2 years 6.175%
PE ratio. 16.7...…………………...16.6...……….14.8..so PE ratio is 2.54 times eps growth.

Thanks, yeah its an interesting one. I have held before and had good returns. Different sectors but the same Chairman in Rob Campbell who is well respected....back in November last year both SUM and THL were ostensibly trading around the same price and the same PE. I made the call then to invest more in SUM as I think not only is the earnings growth more robust but the earnings by their nature are more defensive and there's stronger demographic tailwinds. I'm pleased with that portfolio allocation strategy and believe the basis behind it still holds true in the current environment.


That said THL's PE at 16 or thereabouts is not unreasonable, its just a question of does growth in tourism continue at decent pace if the wheels come off in terms of a full blown trade war ?

[percy]

I do not know,however "the market" is saying it doubts it will.
So should we decide to "only" pay twice the 6.175 eps growth?
6.175 x 2 =12.35.
So PE of 12.35 times year 2020 eps of .428, gives a share price of $5.28.
SUM easier decisions elsewhere,should you follow Rob??