THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

I am a little worried that Rob Campbell is over extending himself with his new additional role at SKC. THL a much bigger and more complex company too now days with its American operations. I think I preferred THL when it was mainly a N.Z. operation. Lots of additional thinking around exposure to U.S. influenced events now which is good if things go well over there but does change the risk profile of the company, at least in my mind.

[percy]

I am a little worried that Rob Campbell is over extending himself with his new additional role at SKC. THL a much bigger and more complex company too now days with its American operations. I think I preferred THL when it was mainly a N.Z. operation. Lots of additional thinking around exposure to U.S. influenced events now which is good if things go well over there but does change the risk profile of the company, at least in my mind.

Yes agreed SKC is "a step too far."
And THL is now very complex.

[winner69]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory

[BlackPeter]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory

Well, EMA 200 is at $5.80 ... will be interesting to see, whether this holds. Looks however some buyers start showing interest.

[couta1]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory

Just a normal stoploss % for those who use them, looks like low volume boredom selling to me, no worries.

[Beagle]

Yes agreed SKC is "a step too far."
And THL is now very complex.

He told the SUM annual meeting the board are spending a LOT of time and effort looking at expanding into Melbourne Australia too which adds even more to his workload. (I hope they're very careful as John Ryder noted in his most recent newsletter that real estate there was down 5% year on year) My father was a workaholic...I feel sorry for Rob's family members.

Anyway back to THL...maybe its worth a punt at just over $6 but I am pretty risk averse right at the minute and favour companies supplying needs based goods and services. Nobody really needs to splash a significant sum of money on an expensive campervan holiday do they so if the custard hits the fan people might pull their heads in a bit when it comes to expensive holidays ?

[Leftfield]

Anyway back to THL...maybe its worth a punt at just over $6 but I am pretty risk averse right at the minute and favour companies supplying needs based goods and services. Nobody really needs to splash a significant sum of money on an expensive campervan holiday do they so if the custard hits the fan people might pull their heads in a bit when it comes to expensive holidays ?

I've got about 10% of my portfolio in THL and have done very nicely since the days when you were advocating AIR. IMO THL covers the Tourism segment much better and is much less open to risk than AIR.

I also like THL's growing air b-n-b of camper vans technology (RoadTrippers/Mighway/CamperMate etc.) THL can clip the ticket on a lot of holidays that THL wouldn't otherwise get.

Disc; Holding and will buy on any dip.

[Beagle]

I respect your viewpoint but its perhaps worth noting that AIR (unlike THL) made profits throughout the GFC, (which speaks for itself in terms of which business is more resilient in a severe recession in my opinion), but there's no question that Rob Campbell has worked some serious magic on this company during his tenure and for all intents and purposes most shareholders have forgotten there's some element of cyclicality to its earnings. Only time and the next recession will demonstrate how resilient their business model is now but I note AIR have shown quite some resilience this year in the face of adversity and on a PE of just 9 it makes a good case for itself especially in regard to its gross yield of close to 10%.

Some investors will have taken notes that RYM grew their underlying earnings throughout the GFC which augers well for SUM. I think you can get Rob's undoubted brilliant expertise SUMwhere else for less risk and higher growth for free and on similar metrics apart from the dividend yield but each to their own and congrats to long term holders, you've done well.

[Filthy]

LTH’s please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t THL used to be predominately be an NZ tour-type-operator i.e. experience based?
Since the company ‘reinvented itself’ as a market leading RV company (cross-country) I see it as a vastly different business to it once was...
While I agree it is always wise to look back at past performance, I do wonder how much emphasis can be placed on THL during the last bear market..?
I suspect that some tail-winds would still remain intact even in a bad economic conditions, as baby-boomers will still look to continually spend their wealth on travel (while they are healthy & able) before they eventually snuff it. I also reckon the US(A) is mostly an internally lead market and NZ/AUS rv’s are mostly used by UK/EURO’s so there may be no affect from the ‘trade-war’ at all (unless it changes the overall marco environment)
Thinking out loud, if one tries to figure out how best to capitalise on the ‘baby-boomer trend’, it might look something like this:
THL, AIR, HBL (reverse mort to pay for travel) à GXH, VHP, HSO, RHC (hospitals & prescriptions) à SUM, OCA, RYM, ARV (retirement & care) à IVC, PFP (funerals).
.….. anyway - I digress…..I’ll be topping up on THL if it continues to drop…. As the wise ‘ld Percy always advocates…. increasing divi’s - whats not to love? a 14-cent final?

[iceman]

LTH’s please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t THL used to be predominately be an NZ tour-type-operator i.e. experience based?
Since the company ‘reinvented itself’ as a market leading RV company (cross-country) I see it as a vastly different business to it once was...
While I agree it is always wise to look back at past performance, I do wonder how much emphasis can be placed on THL during the last bear market..?
I suspect that some tail-winds would still remain intact even in a bad economic conditions, as baby-boomers will still look to continually spend their wealth on travel (while they are healthy & able) before they eventually snuff it. I also reckon the US(A) is mostly an internally lead market and NZ/AUS rv’s are mostly used by UK/EURO’s so there may be no affect from the ‘trade-war’ at all (unless it changes the overall marco environment)
Thinking out loud, if one tries to figure out how best to capitalise on the ‘baby-boomer trend’, it might look something like this:
THL, AIR, HBL (reverse mort to pay for travel) à GXH, VHP, HSO, RHC (hospitals & prescriptions) à SUM, OCA, RYM, ARV (retirement & care) à IVC, PFP (funerals).
.….. anyway - I digress…..I’ll be topping up on THL if it continues to drop…. As the wise ‘ld Percy always advocates…. increasing divi’s - whats not to love? a 14-cent final?

That is how pretty much see it as well Filthy. The THL of today, thanks largely to Rob's stewardship, is a very different beast to the THL of yesteryear. But I think Beagle has a point should we hit a global recession that THL, like very many businesses, will be affected. How much is anyone's guess and with the way Trump is carrying on (like meddling in UK politics yesterday), I don't think one can predict very much at all about the global situation these days.