THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Extract from presentation -


There has been some commentary in the market that we are considering a capital raise to fund potential M&A. We can confirm that we have no current transactions in play which would require us to undertake a capital raise.

[winner69]

Hope the promise of growth from an acquisition currently built into the shareprice doesnt dissipate

That would cause a fair bit of weakness

PE of 18 on forecast earnings is very high

[BigBob]

Quite concerned about this one...especially given Air NZ’s recent comments on incoming passengers.

Nothing to see here... : “While there is some uncertainty about the growth rate for international tourism, we are currently still experiencing growth in forward bookings in all markets.” ;-)

[BlackPeter]

Profit down for half and full year guidance a bit lower than I thought it would be. Oops — dress it up a bit and profits actually up.

One needs to keep the faith


Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “This business is not only growing, but is changing in its scope and structure. We are taking the build/buy– rent – sell model in our RV business to wider geographies. At the same time, we are extending the scope of what we offer the global market. There are positive early signs in our significant TH2 investment with Thor Industries. TH2 has the potential to be a strong digital infrastructure provider, not only to thl and Thor, but to the wider industry.”

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...072/295663.pdf

Well, despite all the big yellow "feel-good" bubbles for this years results - revenue down (slightly - 1%) and NPAT down (significantly - 17%). They didn't hide the numbers good enough - Ouch.

And yes, how they measure their "good" progress re TH2 development / implementation is anybodys best guess. I have seen during my career many delusional managers without any clue re the progress of their software projects - and THL board / management are not even software specialists...

And I thought I was brave holding TRA ;

[minimoke]

Well, despite all the big yellow "feel-good" bubbles for this years results - revenue down (slightly - 1%) and NPAT down (significantly - 17%). They didn't hide the numbers good enough - Ouch.

And yes, how they measure their "good" progress re TH2 development / implementation is anybody's best guess. I have seen during my career many delusional managers without any clue re the progress of their software projects - and THL board / management are not even software specialists...

As a holder of THL I have more faith (based on their delivery) in THL than TRA. THL have found a potential future revenue stream - that comes with risk. Thants the nature of business if you want to to grow long term.

[golden city]

I am believing the management is trying to setup future value for the company

[RTM]

As a holder of THL I have more faith (based on their delivery) in THL than TRA. THL have found a potential future revenue stream - that comes with risk. Thants the nature of business if you want to to grow long term.

Interesting. THL worry me more in that they are going into new areas. Computer projects easily exceed costs, can’t afford to continue, can’t afford to stop ��. TRA at least should be able to foresee and control/manage their variables, I think better than THL.
Disc: Holder. 2.8% of portfolio.

[JeremyALD]

It's a pretty disappointing, but expected result. THL were growing significantly, looked like they would smash their 50m NPAT target and then decided to steer in a new direction. One with much higher risk when markets will be more volatile worldwide. ATL has also suffered a significant loss in shareholder value by increasing their exposure and risk through M&A and this dosen't look like a particularly
attractive area to invest in at the moment.

I'm also worried about their high levels of debt and am wondering if these dividends are sustainable (first time they have remained flat in many years).

Personally I wouldn't hold THL again until they get some runs on the board with T2.

[Balance]

Hope the promise of growth from an acquisition currently built into the shareprice doesnt dissipate

That would cause a fair bit of weakness

PE of 18 on forecast earnings is very high

Realistically, a PER of 13.5 is as much as one would pay for a company with a declining earnings profile and irrespective of what is stated about capital raise, there will have to be one for the next acquisition.

[winner69]

Jeremy ...obviously we are not going to get a new target of ‘way above $50m’ (or something like that) that they said they would come up with.

Cash flow negative again I note ...and still divies being paid