Yesterday a Substantial Product Holder notice was filled by the Trouchet Family detailing the sale of nearly 2 million shares on 20 March. The Trouchet’s were the founders of Apollo and received 28.7 million THL shares as part of the merger. The agreed escrow restrictions were that they had to keep 90% of shares until 30 November 2023 and 50% of the shares until 30 November 2024 (unless THL agreed to waive). With a sell down now having commenced, there is a significant overhang of shares which will undermine the THL share price until the sell down is completed (noting it will take time given the 50% restriction until 30 November 2024) or there is some explicit statement from the Trouchet’s that they are committed long term holders for their remaining shareholding.
From the WSJ an American view. Winnebago sales problem seem to be a bit like thl’s -
Good morning, CFOs. Winnebago Industries is facing a challenge with its financial forecasting, telling investors that, in a historically cyclical industry, its plummeting sales are likely temporary—but, in a shaky economy, it isn’t sure when they will fully recover.
Winnebago, best known for making motor homes and camper vans, benefited from a surge in consumer spending on outdoor activities during the early days of the pandemic. But sales to retailers plummeted as concerns about Covid-19 waned and people spent more money on air travel and hotels. High interest rates have also made purchases unaffordable for some buyers. During the quarter ended Feb. 24, net revenue at the company fell 19% from a year earlier, to $703.6 million.
Recreational-vehicle sales typically rise and fall with the economy. Winnebago’s business model is built to weather such downturns, even after RV shipments to retailers sank to the lowest point since 2012. Roughly 85% of the company’s costs are variable, meaning they can be quickly cut, Chief Financial Officer Bryan Hughes said. Over the past year, Winnebago cut its expenses by operating its production lines fewer than five days a week.
Last edited by winner69; 30-03-2024 at 07:59 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
About the same as when the Apollo merger was announced
What’s happened in meantime.
There is a silver lining now. Middle east, North African and European bound visitors will come to Asian and Pacific region which include New Zealand and Australia.
Oh dear …big downgrade coming …not surprising …one been on cards for a while now
Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
thl advises that, following a review of all divisions, it now expects net profit after tax (NPAT) in FY24 to be between $50M and $53M. This compares to earlier guidance set in February 2024 for NPAT to be around $75M.
The weakening economy has impacted most regions and business divisions negatively and lowered expectations into Q4. Vehicle sales have been a major factor globally, with sales volumes and margins now declining more quickly than expected in most markets. Over 50% of the overall group EBIT decline is attributable to the Australian Retail Dealership division and in particular, a shortfall in the sales volumes of high-margin ex-fleet vehicles.
Rental yields have generally met expectations in most markets, however a recent slowdown in forward booking intakes for the Australasian shoulder season will lead to a poorer rental performance than earlier forecasts in the remainder of FY24.
An investor presentation is attached to this announcement with further detail.
Outlook for FY25 and FY26
thl has retained the goal for $100M NPAT in FY26. thl has considered the assumptions underlying the goal and believe the goal remains appropriate based on a positive rental growth outlook and a recovery in the RV sales market globally. However, expectations for FY25 are now below the FY23 Pro Forma NPAT of $77.1M.
Other implications
Based on its new forecast, thl is forecasting to be compliant with its covenant assessments for the 30 June 2024 quarter. However, thl will engage with its banking syndicate to seek to amend its covenant package to better reflect current trading conditions.
Based on a preliminary review, thl also believes it is probable that there will be impairment in relation to the UK/Ireland business division as part of the upcoming 2024 year-end process.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by winner69
Bookmarks