THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Obviously a lot has changed in thl’s assessment of their US performance over the last 8 weeks. At the half year the US wasn’t that good but a few weeks later it’s dire. Even talk of a capital review ....now that’s really bad

In the half year announcement When guidance was changed from a ‘range of $32m to $34m’ to ‘around’ $32m the share slumped to $4.30 that day

Now they come with a guidance of $25m and the share price crashed back to $4.20 ...hmm

So share price still about the same today as it was when guidance was a lot higher

Seems ‘investors’ still in love with thl and they think the futures all bright and rosy...and we shall not punish them too much.

The paper said the bargain hunters came out in force yesterday on a high volume day ...maybe as BlackPeter says price us whst you pay but value is what you get

[Beagle]

Same here. Sold my last few remaining shares at $ 4.26 today. News way too bad and unexpected. Been a good investment over the last few years but happy to be out now.

Good move mate. The dream run is over. They have a systemic issue with disposal of old campers right across their operations by the looks of it.
You can't run a profitable business without being able to ruin the full cycle of acquisition of plant and equipment at attractive prices, operation of same and rental at good prices and disposal at good prices. If anyone of those vital cogs comes undone, (which its clear one has) it could take years to fix the systemic problem.

I sometimes ponder buying a decent second hand campervan, (Beagle's like luxury so its has to be a good one) for about $100K but the numbers simply don't work and one is better off renting. I wonder if we're seeing a structural shift with people's transport and holiday arrangements ? Rent that which depreciates...
Buying a campervan definitely falls deep into the hole of a complete discretionary purchase and one has to have real confidence about one's future prospects to outlay 100 large on something that will be rarely used. Just a whiff of uncertainty about future financial prospects and people simply sit on their hands.

I suspect people's buying habits of large discretionary purchases have changed since the GFC. Most of the luxury car manufactures are struggling with their high end models, Riviera Australia as one example used to make about 400 luxury launches a year at their peak, now they struggle to get 100 orders a year from what I hear.
CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me a while ago that people are simply more careful with their money after the GFC and I think he's right.

I think THL's mountain of used campervans presents very serious and enduring headwinds to the company going forward.

[minimoke]

I sometimes ponder buying a decent second hand campervan, (Beagle's like luxury so its has to be a good one) for about $100K....

npat down another $7m @ $100k a van, just how many are there that are unsold

[iceman]

Obviously a lot has changed in thl’s assessment of their US performance over the last 8 weeks. At the half year the US wasn’t that good but a few weeks later it’s dire. Even talk of a capital review ....now that’s really bad

In the half year announcement When guidance was changed from a ‘range of $32m to $34m’ to ‘around’ $32m the share slumped to $4.30 that day

Now they come with a guidance of $25m and the share price crashed back to $4.20 ...hmm

So share price still about the same today as it was when guidance was a lot higher

Seems ‘investors’ still in love with thl and they think the futures all bright and rosy...and we shall not punish them too much.

The paper said the bargain hunters came out in force yesterday on a high volume day ...maybe as BlackPeter says price us whst you pay but value is what you get

Yes winner69, this looks bad. Too bad for my liking. Not so long ago they were exciting us with $50m profit in the near future and a potential acquisitions. Now the $50m profit seems to have disappeared where Jacinda's CGT went, to oblivion. The announcement of the merger in Australia is not an acquisition and I can not see this happening now, albeit may proven wrong.
Still think the technology investment/development may have exciting opportunities but given the big operational problems in the US, as Beagle correctly points out above, this one is better watched from the sidelines for now.

[winner69]

Half year announcement in February mentioned -

Net Debt at December 2018 of $226M, exceeding original expectations due to the shortfall in vehicle sales in USA....net debt at end F19 expected to be in the range of $217M - $237M.

After Thursday’s anouncement I assume that F19 position will exceed expectations as well.

No wonder they mention words like ‘capital review’ as part of this immediate decisive (panic) review of US operations

[Balance]

Half year announcement in February mentioned -

Net Debt at December 2018 of $226M, exceeding original expectations due to the shortfall in vehicle sales in USA....net debt at end F19 expected to be in the range of $217M - $237M.

After Thursday’s anouncement I assume that F19 position will exceed expectations as well.

No wonder they mention words like ‘capital review’ as part of this immediate decisive (panic) review of US operations

Come on, W69 - don't go scaring the last of the believers in THL.

There's the small matter of a capital raise to fix the balance sheet so a falling sp is not helpful.

[winner69]

Come on, W69 - don't go scaring the last of the believers in THL.

There's the small matter of a capital raise to fix the balance sheet so a falling sp is not helpful.

It will be all ok because Rob talked about vitality at the last AGM

Heaven quoted F Scott Fitzgerald saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”

Maybe Rob has to now to decide whether to persist or start over again.

[Balance]

It will be all ok because Rob talked about vitality at the last AGM

Heaven quoted F Scott Fitzgerald saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”

Maybe Rob has to now to decide whether to persist or start over again.

THL should really stick to Oceania - the US and UK have generally been not happy hunting grounds for NZ companies, be them Pumpkin Patch, Fletcher, Michael Hill or as we are finding out, RBD.

[winner69]

thl must be stretching their credibility a bit.

• The $50m Profit target well and truly gone out the window ...even though they say underlying business should achieve this in 2021
• The never announced profit target ‘well in excess of the $50m’ obviously just a tease
• Big global acquisitions put on the back burner for now as things are just too expensive (implies thl current value is just too high as well)
• Nobody wanted to pay over the odds for their NZ tourism businesses

Suppose investors need to keep the faith and continue to believe the th2 initiative reaps huge rewards in due course after a period of significant amounts of cash being pumped into it

But I fear that ‘immediate’ and ‘decisive’ reviews generally don’t have good outcomes ...esp when a capital review are also mentioned in the same sentence

Hope the bargain hunters did get a bargain on Thursday

[winner69]

Always interesting to track share price relative to profitability. Here’s chart updated with F19 eps of 20 cents included