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  1. #3311
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
    Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...
    They are a cyclical tourism company.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  2. #3312
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    They are a cyclical tourism company.
    Yes, their business is cyclical ...and very capital intensive

    Share price cyclicity dampened somewhat by them continuing to pay a 27 cent dividend no matter what

    Promises of huge growth and hype also help the share price.
    Last edited by winner69; 02-06-2019 at 07:37 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3313
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Yes, their business is cyclical ...and very capital intensive

    Share price cyclicity dampened somewhat by them continuing to pay a 27 cent dividend no matter what

    Promises of huge growth and hype also help the share price.
    How capital intensive they are depends on your viewpoint. Their June 2018 accounts have a Total Assets/Revenue ratio of 1.38 ($341m revenue, $470m of assets). The higher this ratio, the more capital intensive. You only need to look at the retirement companies to see what being truely capital intensive looks like. For example SUM had a ratio of 20 in 2018 ($137m revenue, $2,766m of assets). Energy companies are also a lot more capital intensive despite paying substantial fees for transmission of electricity. For example Mercury energy had a ratio of 3.37 in 2018 ($1.8b revenue, $6.1b of assets).

  4. #3314
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    They are a cyclical tourism company.
    I agree 100%...its just that there's been a very long upcycle which may have the makings of starting to finally reverse. A lot of people have got confused, (in my opinion) and have been valuing based on it being a growth company or even worse, a tech company.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-06-2019 at 11:28 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #3315
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I’ve often read on Sharetrader that share Prices follow earnings

    Well, thl is running true to that thinking as chart shows

    Wonder if takeover and/or growth premiums are built into the share price at the moment ..at a PE of about 19 you’d think that there is
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #3316
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    That Apollo in Aust share price still going down .....

    ......market cap now $70m


    Would thl want to add to their own woes by making a play.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #3317
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    thl must have been expecting great things for Road Bear buying all these vehicles -


    • Approximately 80 new vehicle purchases initially intended for Road Bear in FY2019 will remain in our storage facility in Middlebury. This will reduce costs associated with holding this fleet because:
    .... • The vehicles will not be registered until FY2020.
    .... • Depreciation on these vehicles will be at a lower rate
    Last edited by winner69; 03-06-2019 at 02:58 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #3318
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That Apollo in Aust share price still going down .....

    ......market cap now $70m


    Would thl want to add to their own woes by making a play.
    Apollo from memory are the second biggest operator here so Com Com could have a problem with any possible takeover.
    Current year PE now just 3.9 and in this announcement they say Global market conditions have deteriorated in May https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201905...f15mqljrmj.pdf
    Makes THL's PE look more than a little "interesting"
    "Interesting" times for THL when they park up that much stock. As Balance famously said, downgrades usually comes in 3's...
    THL trading on a current year PE of 19 assuming they can make their $25m profit...a higher PE than when they were growing strongly and everything in the sector smelt like Roses...Hmmmm
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-06-2019 at 03:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3319
    percy
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    I have both THL and ATL on watch lists.
    However, I think it will be some time away before I consider buying either.Improvement in the sale of used camper vans looks a long way off for both companies.
    Debt could also be a worry with ATL.

  10. #3320
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I agree 100%. The TA on both these says stay away. I'd want to see some TA encouragement before dipping my paws into either but I think ATL presents as an interesting opportunity and I note they manufacture RV's and operate in many countries so I would think some renationalization within their operations is pending.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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