THL - Tourism Holdings

**cymonger** · 22-02-2018, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by minimoke

My front end loader has finished moving my ATM gains from yesterday. Currently idling to see what it can do with THL (and SML) today.

That ATM thing was pretty amazing yesterday. Just goes to show why you stay in the market through the ups and downs. Once in a while a day like that comes along you would be sick about if you missed it trying to time the market.

**Balance** · 22-02-2018, 09:46 AM

Stay with the winners.

Amazing to think that THL was less than $1 five years ago!

Anyone who stayed the distance and still holds, is reaping a 25% pa dividend yield - forgetting about the sp for a second!

**Leftfield** · 22-02-2018, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by Beagle

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...551/274924.pdf

..... I think this is a good company trading at about fair value.

Maybe a tab conservative? 1st Half EPS at 18c. If they double that for the full year = 36c ps, thus could be $10 plus by end FY 2018? or am I being too simplistic?

**Beagle** · 22-02-2018, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by Left field

Maybe a tab conservative? 1st Half EPS at 18c. If they double that for the full year = 36c ps, thus could be $10 plus by end FY 2018? or am I being too simplistic?

Yes, you're ignoring seasonality. Operational guidance is what it is and excluding extraordinary items and has been lowered slightly. The PE as I have commented on recently is very high and the SP has already tripled in the last 3 years mainly on the back of substantial PE expansion. Great stock and its had a great run already.
Happy to have my share of that great gain safely in the tin. That said they do have a history of steady upgrades so to your earlier point, yes they probably are being a little conservative, Rob Campbell is good like that

All the best with it.

**Oliver Mander** · 22-02-2018, 10:21 AM

pretty happy with this. Like you, Beagle, surprised a bit at the conservative outlook - but it could be that they are just being conservative...either way, another great result.

**Leftfield** · 22-02-2018, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Yes, you're ignoring seasonality. Operational guidance is what it is and excluding extraordinary items and has been lowered slightly. The PE as I have commented on recently is very high and the SP has already tripled in the last 3 years mainly on the back of substantial PE expansion. Great stock and its had a great run already.
Happy to have my share of that great gain safely in the tin. That said they do have a history of steady upgrades so to your earlier point, yes they probably are being a little conservative, Rob Campbell is good like that

All the best with it.

Appreciated - thank you. I'll just have to be patient.

Maybe I'm biased, but I can't help thinking with the growth of their USA market the seasonality risk is being mitigated, while the growth of their digital platforms have yet to show any financial benefits. Time will tell.

**percy** · 22-02-2018, 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Stay with the winners.

Amazing to think that THL was less than $1 five years ago!

Anyone who stayed the distance and still holds, is reaping a 25% pa dividend yield - forgetting about the sp for a second!

Funny how the winners always surprise on the upside.

**cymonger** · 22-02-2018, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by Left field

Appreciated - thank you. I'll just have to be patient.

Maybe I'm biased, but I can't help thinking with the growth of their USA market the seasonality risk is being mitigated, while the growth of their digital platforms have yet to show any financial benefits. Time will tell.

This is totally correct. US growth up 18% this year which is a major driver of these numbers. June, July, and August are huge travel months for (non-retired) Americans. The variance in the weather here is so mild compared to the US that the seasons aren't all that important to these travelers. Not to mention NZ tourism has made a huge push to market the shoulder seasons, which is clearly working. This company has got the ole "underpromise/overdeliver" thing down pretty well when it comes to the reporting of their numbers. I'll take anyone's bet that the next group of numbers will be higher rather than lower.