THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

DB has NTA @ 1.37 ... SP currently .80 !!!

Review of past trends following recessions says that THL bounces back pretty darn quick with just one very sucky year, followed by pickup to near half-to-normal sales followed the next year by a return to the status quo. This is the time to bail as THL never seem to grow all that much following the two years it takes to get back on track.

You saying THL is a SELL then Belg

At 80 cents against a book value of $1.85 the market is already saying that THL will continue it value destruction into the future ... whats changed, THL has never made enought to cover its cost of capital anyway

Interesting comments about their past sales performance .... the chart below shows what has happened over the years .... one thing noticable is that they don't seem to recover much after big drops .... ie almost a long slow miserable decline (or flat at best) .... and one really can't blame recent global events for current performance

So it all comes down to what margin they make on the sales they do make .... Munros stuffed last year and if they fix that you would expect to see $10=$15m NPAT a base going forward (still value destruction territory) which would give some hope of a shareprice around $1.30-$1.50 sometime.

Hey nearly talked myself into buying .... but on principle i don't like investing in -

- value destroyers (ie not covering cost of capital)
- companies that can't seem to grow the revenues line when they should
- companies that seem to lurch from one disaster to another
- companies who don't seem to have any pricing power

But then again I could forget that and go for a short to medium term trade based on TA

You not selling Belg .... wouldn't want you to push down the price quitting your holding

[bull....]

Tourism Confidence Continues to Improve

Friday 11 December 2009 – For immediate release

The Tourism Industry Monitor shows that the confidence levels of tourism sector operators continue to improve.



Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce Bassett, said that overall, optimism in the industry was tracking in the right direction, although this wasn’t the case for all operators.



“Tourism is a very broad industry and we’re mindful that while business is good for many, others are still hurting. We’re not out of the woods yet, but the industry’s mood is heading in the right direction and there is optimism about the summer period.”



Just over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect demand to improve over the next three months and under one third (29%) expect demand to fall, with the balance expecting their situation to remain the same.



Lack of demand continues to be the main factor limiting business performance, cited by three quarters (75%) of businesses surveyed. Competition and discounting also continue to limit performance, cited by 38% of businesses.



The Tourism Industry Monitor is an industry wide initiative. It is designed to provide the industry with monthly information on the performance of the tourism sector, including the short-term outlook. It is led by the Ministry of Tourism, the Tourism Industry Association, Tourism New Zealand and the New Zealand Hotel Council.



For a copy of the Tourism Industry Monitor visit www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/tim.

[bull....]

Prices showing positive trending behaviour minor resistance at 97c more at 1.32 then 1.50.

The fall from 1.32 to 72 was pretty much freefall so in theory should not be to much overhead resistance till then.

[Doyle]

I got on board with this one at 77 cents so am fairly happy with performance so far. Should be well placed to take advantage of the Rugby world Cup, I would have thought. But other than that seems little explanation for such a sharp price rise, tourism operators are being revalued, but I wouldn't have thought that would explain the near 40% increase over the last couple of months.

[forest]

One positive which was brought up at the ann meeting was that within Action Motor Bodies a contract had been won to build dental health units for District Health Boards.
The expectations were that the contract was large enough to generate reasonable good profits. This is a multi year contract. Unfortunately I do not remember that any profit forecast was given for this contract so I am not able to quantify the value of this contract.

[bull....]

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

[Doyle]

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

Leisure and Tourism Index, didn't even know such a thing existed. Learn something new every day,

[Doyle]

Almost as if a result of your post BULL, the rally seems to have started a second leg this morning, tentative at this stage but might challenge $1 before the week is out.

[bull....]

As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.

[Doyle]

And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?