THL - Tourism Holdings

[bull....]

Looking to go to the New Zealand Rugby World Cup in 2011? You better book soon, as supply is becoming scarce, according the Rohan Marx, General Manager of iMall Motorhomes:




“You need to book a Motorhome for the 2011 Rugby World Cup now or you run the risk of missing out” warns Rohan Marx, General Manager of Motorhome Rentals at iMall Motorhomes. “As ridiculous as it sounds we already have one fleet of nearly 600 Motorhomes of all shapes and sizes completely booked out and several smaller fleets quickly nearing 100% Occupancy for the Rugby World Cup”.


The schedule for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand is as follows:


•September 9th – October 2nd 2011 Pool Games
•October 8th – 23rd 2011 Quarter Finals and Finals

Pool games and Quarter finals are played in major centres in both the North and South island of New Zealand with the Semi finals and the final all being played in Auckland.




Marx continues:





“The even spread of locations hosting games and the scarcity of flights, hotels, and motels to, from and in many of these centres makes Motorhoming the perfect way to travel to and from games as well as see New Zealand along the way. Even though we have well over 4000 dedicated rental Motorhomes in New Zealand the Rugby World Cup will see a huge influx of overseas visitors from Rugby playing nations and many of these also happen to be strong Motorhoming Nationalities .




Larger 4 and 6 Berth vehicles will sell out first, so if you are travelling with 3 or more people you really do need to get in and book this side of Christmas 2009. The smaller 2 -3 berth vehicles or 2 Berths with Showers and toilets will sell out also but probably not until the middle or end of 2010. If you are thinking of booking a vehicle for the Rugby World Cup a couple or possibly even 6 months out from the Rugby World Cup – think again. The closest you’ll get is a car and a tent.



You don’t have to put 100% payment down on Campervans in New Zealand until much nearer the pick up date. So if you are worried about the New Zealand dollar being high at the moment and are waiting for it to possibly fall against the Euro or GBP this is not a valid strategy. The important thing is to book and secure a vehicle first. Most companies will require a deposit but the bulk of the rental won’t need to be paid until 3 – 6 months before the tournament. (start to middle of 2011) . Do not think that you will secure a cheap flight first before trying to secure a Motorhome or Campervan. It’s unlikely flights will fluctuate too much around the Rugby World Cup dates and even if they do this won’t be until very close to the actual dates of the tournament and all vehicles will be well and truly booked by then. This is a common mistake Motorhome renters are making with normal Summer periods so the Rugby World Cup will be even worse in terms of vehicle availability."


The asking rates on vehicles for the Rugby World Cup will also increase as the event approached and availability becomes scarce. Now is the best time book - check out Rugby World Cup

[winner69]

And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?

Doyle - of course it will continue to rise ... just look at the pathetic volumes .... and seems plenty of keen buyers who prob want more than (readily) available

Probably go to 140 over the next month or 2 I reckon as some of those earlier charts showed a few pages back .... in particular the price:sales ratio one

Don't have much confidence in the company performance but heck if punters want to let the share price go highwe why not stay on for the ride.

[winner69]

A while ago somebody who obviously knew about how THL work pointed out that the more use the campervans get the less money THL made .... something to do with how they account for deprwciation or something

Was counterintuitive but when explained made some sense

Maybe someone else can remember

[J R Ewing]

As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.

I suspect this price rise has more to do with the current NZ tourism season than RWC. Tourism is pretty buoyant just now, especially when you compare it with everyone's gloomy predictions a few months ago. In rental cars, there seems to be less of an oversupply, and so yeilds have improved. If the same goes for campervans, THL should be having a good season.

[bull....]

JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

[Dusty]

THL up again, straight through 60 resistence level when NZX down. Bought into THL with a longer term view in mind targeting 2011 increased tourism numbers especially in my opinion the Chinese along with the Rugby world cup, very few fans are going to Cross the world and not tack a holiday onto their world cup plans, chart showing strength but now I think there could be several chances to trade this company profitably between now and then.
Share rise has been supported by decent volume however majority are small parcels going through, 1000/2000/3500?

First bought THL back around August for 49c based on many points you have raised bull...
Tourism numbers, RWC, capital gains and div reinstatement, NTA.
What drew me to THL in the first place was attempting to take a contrarion view and find stocks that have somewhat lagged the rally thus far and THL fit the bill perfectly. I picked THL in the NZ comp this year with 70c entry I think and tried to base my other predictions using this method as well.
Not thinking about taking any money of the table yet either with 2010 going to be a big year for them.

[Phaedrus]

Focus on the cashflow ...

Nah - focus on the TREND!

[Phaedrus]

As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. Overall it has gone nowhere in decades, but over this time there have been uptrends (and downtrends!) that lasted for years. "Active investors" using the simplest TA have made handsome profits on this stock. The crudest, bluntest instrument in the TA toolbox is a 200 day Moving Average. (Blue line on chart). Even this got you into the major uptrends, locking profits in before you gave too much back to the market, while keeping you out of major downtrends. As you would expect, more responsive indicators such as trendlines, oscillators, volume indicators etc give better results.



Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

[winner69]

Focus on the cashflow ...

Obviously expecting cash flows to improve eh Belg

But in THL's case strong cash flows do not always translate into a strong shareprice .... therefore like Phaedrus feel it better to let the market do the talking

You never know if the cash flows over the next few years are strong snd the market gets excited we should see a shareprice of 250 or something

As you keep reminding us it is the ebbs and flows of market valuations ... esp from going from undervalued by the market to being overvalued by the market .... where the real money is to be made (what a lot of words to say buy cheap sell high eh)

THL was 'cheap' when its price:sales ratio got down to .25 ..... normally if doing OK a fair valuation is at least 1 .... so that was the time to get interested

Belg, but as a true contrarian shouldn't you be selling at the moment .... THL is in demand and the bugger is to get a decent chunk you have to pay over the odds on the day

[winner69]

As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. .........

Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

Phaedrus ... great charts as usual

For this latest uptrend I am using a calculated ATR as the guide when to get out

Currently this at 3 times is 91 cents so a bit of leeway from todays price ... back to 91 cents and out she goes as we lock in profits (discipline eh). The ATR has been support for the total rise from 40 cents odd so it gives me some comfort

Let market sentiment rule ......... maybe 250 this time next year