THL - Tourism Holdings

[BlackPeter]

Maybe they bought a beach? :-)

Maybe ... and while there might be plenty of legitimate reasons - directors selling always makes you nervous, doesn't it? Plenty of outstanding examples where this was the end of the golden run: PEB, ERD, and - at least temporarily SUM (after Norah sold) springing to mind.

[Beagle]

Agree its not usually a good sign.

[noodles]

Agree its not usually a good sign.

Directors and management have been selling shares whenever they get the chance (after the results) for the last couple of years. They were issued shares as part of employee incentives and as part of the merger (directors). Just look at the last couple of years of history. Grant sold a few last September at around $2.

I don't think they have been selling because they think the companies prospects were bad (as the last couple of years have proven to be excellent). I think they were selling for other reasons.

[sb9]

Directors and management have been selling shares whenever they get the chance (after the results) for the last couple of years. They were issued shares as part of employee incentives and as part of the merger (directors). Just look at the last couple of years of history. Grant sold a few last September at around $2.

I don't think they have been selling because they think the companies prospects were bad (as the last couple of years have proven to be excellent). I think they were selling for other reasons.

Totally agree there noodles.

They still hold plenty even after these sales, its only fair that they should be able to sell some to reward themselves for the stupendous job they're doing. I've absolutely no problem with that.

I think it's bit unfair to treat these sales along lines of other companies mentioned by blackpeter, not at all comparable in my honest opinion.

If if that's' the case, what about Rod Drury (sorry to bring you in here) selling some of his shares of Xero at its recent peak price?

We all tend to forget the fact that management are also human beings after all and they need money for variety of reasons, let's not be too harsh about that.

[golden city]

directors do need money too..., just like me.., I was holding large portion of thl before..., at around 2 dollar.., I forced myself to sell some to buy my lifestyle block.., if I had the extra cash.., I won't sell..a share ..,

[BlackPeter]

Totally agree there noodles.

They still hold plenty even after these sales, its only fair that they should be able to sell some to reward themselves for the stupendous job they're doing. I've absolutely no problem with that.

I think it's bit unfair to treat these sales along lines of other companies mentioned by blackpeter, not at all comparable in my honest opinion.

If if that's' the case, what about Rod Drury (sorry to bring you in here) selling some of his shares of Xero at its recent peak price?

We all tend to forget the fact that management are also human beings after all and they need money for variety of reasons, let's not be too harsh about that.

Look guys, I don't want to rain into the parade ... and what a bull run it was! THL had over the recent years a big turnaround. It is IHMO a healthy company with a good income stream - i.e. absolutely agree that comparing them in that regard to e.g. PEB and ERD would be wrong and unfair (and actually - I didn't do that, just pointed to some other examples where directors were selling while the market was still excited about their company ... just to sober up soon after

On the other hand ... THL is clearly a cyclical company (as anything else related to tourism) at what might be the top quartile of the cycle (but - who knows). At this phase in the cycle I would want to see for a fairly valued cyclical company a forward PE of below 10 ... and a historic PE (across the cycle) of say 12 to 15. What we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125 - and a CAGR (not that meaningful for a cyclical company) of 5.7.

Obviously - the market is allowed to price any company as it sees fit - i.e. I don't know, whether the bull run will continue. However directors / management selling could still highlight that they feel that the company is currently "fully priced". I learned it (in other companies) the hard way not to ignore their signals!

Discl: not holding ... and yes, I did miss the THL bull run (though nicely compensated by some others - you can't win every race ...)

[benjitara]

Look guys, I don't want to rain into the parade ... and what a bull run it was! THL had over the recent years a big turnaround. It is IHMO a healthy company with a good income stream - i.e. absolutely agree that comparing them in that regard to e.g. PEB and ERD would be wrong and unfair (and actually - I didn't do that, just pointed to some other examples where directors were selling while the market was still excited about their company ... just to sober up soon after

On the other hand ... THL is clearly a cyclical company (as anything else related to tourism) at what might be the top quartile of the cycle (but - who knows). At this phase in the cycle I would want to see for a fairly valued cyclical company a forward PE of below 10 ... and a historic PE (across the cycle) of say 12 to 15. What we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125 - and a CAGR (not that meaningful for a cyclical company) of 5.7.

Obviously - the market is allowed to price any company as it sees fit - i.e. I don't know, whether the bull run will continue. However directors / management selling could still highlight that they feel that the company is currently "fully priced". I learned it (in other companies) the hard way not to ignore their signals!

Discl: not holding ... and yes, I did miss the THL bull run (though nicely compensated by some others - you can't win every race ...)

THL wouldn't have been a company I would have invested in 5 years ago. Do they operate their business in the same way as they did 5 years ago, clearly not. Fleet reduction, fewer large competitors, diversification of products, flexifleet establishment, telematics. All of which are having/ or will have a desired effect on their profit levels. Yes thl is a cyclical company and you need people to be visiting nz to have the opportunity for them to utilise thl but lets remember there are a number of developing nations that have ever-increasing numbers of middle class families. India a massive untapped market, China increasing...

[vin]

So far so good, be interesting to see where the day ends.

[noodles]

LWhat we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125

The forward pe=11.14

eps= 24,000,000/113,846,527= 21.1c

pe = 2.41/.211 = 11.4

[BlackPeter]

The forward pe=11.14

eps= 24,000,000/113,846,527= 21.1c

pe = 2.41/.211 = 11.4

Hi noodles,

not that it really matters .. but P/E and particularly forward PE are obviously volatile numbers moving with SP and assumptions. They are only "right" at a certain point in time, and if you have a guaranteed forecast (which I haven't seen yet).

I used the (as per 4traders ...) at that stage consensus earnings estimate of 19.6 cts per share and as SP $2,54 (which was true not too long prior to my original post). But yes, you are right - they upgraded by now their new earnings estimate up to 21.2 cts - moving the forward PE closer to your number.

Doesn't matter too much - I think the more important question is - will THL earnings and revenue keep climbing in the mid and long term (turning it into a real growth company) - or will they plateau as long as the current tourism bubble stays inflated and moving after deflation into the next cyclical low.

If I knew the answer to questions like that, I would be rich (which I am not ...) - what is your view - and why?