THL - Tourism Holdings

[noodles]

Hi noodles,

not that it really matters .. but P/E and particularly forward PE are obviously volatile numbers moving with SP and assumptions. They are only "right" at a certain point in time, and if you have a guaranteed forecast (which I haven't seen yet).

I used the (as per 4traders ...) at that stage consensus earnings estimate of 19.6 cts per share and as SP $2,54 (which was true not too long prior to my original post). But yes, you are right - they upgraded by now their new earnings estimate up to 21.2 cts - moving the forward PE closer to your number.

Doesn't matter too much - I think the more important question is - will THL earnings and revenue keep climbing in the mid and long term (turning it into a real growth company) - or will they plateau as long as the current tourism bubble stays inflated and moving after deflation into the next cyclical low.

If I knew the answer to questions like that, I would be rich (which I am not ...) - what is your view - and why?

I don't think they are dependent on a continuation of the NZ tourism boom to grow. There are many initiatives to grow eps underway. But I think the key ones are:
1. Increasing the amount of revenue per customer by making money when the customer is actually in the campervan. E.g. A side trip to Waitomo
2. Increasing geographies. E.g New office in Seattle to service Canada
3. Increasing ROCE by holding onto campervans for only a season ( or UK and NZ season)

The company has a target NPAT of 30m by 2019. It was flagged in the recent result that they are likely to achieve this earlier.
They have also stated that they are looking at acquisitions.

[Lewylewylewy]

Data is showing that 2015 was a bumper year (as we all know), but 2016 is looking similar so far:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ls-jan-16.aspx

(The PDF download on the right hand side, page 8). I estimate the SP to peak between $2.60 - $2.80 this year (likely closer to the lower end of that bracket).

[Peitro]

Data is showing that 2015 was a bumper year (as we all know), but 2016 is looking similar so far:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ls-jan-16.aspx

(The PDF download on the right hand side, page 8). I estimate the SP to peak between $2.60 - $2.80 this year (likely closer to the lower end of that bracket).

Growth from China is impressive.

Capture.PNG

2015 was a good year, but doesn't even compare to the growth seen across the board in 2016.

2017 Lions tour is going to provide a bumper year with a huge influx in the typical off season, looking very positive in the medium term...

[sb9]

Looks like a big lot went through, 347,304 shares transacted off-market at $2.41.

[Lewylewylewy]

Is most of the revenue brought from NZ, rather than the UK / US business? In which case, that's great. I was just using the numbers as an indicator of general tourism to see whether people are spending money on tourism.

[Peitro]

not disagreeing with you at all Lewy- emphasizing the growth in 2016

[sb9]

Looks like another big lot traded off-market in last little while. I think it's on the move...

[vin]

Looks like it, hope the momentum carries on today. Pushing through $2.50?

[sb9]

Looks like it, hope the momentum carries on today. Pushing through $2.50?

The 2.47 seller has gone for now, next ask is at 2.50 with bidder at 2.47.
Lets see if it can crack that 2.50 mark.

[vin]

There you go sb9