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  1. #1721
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...392/consensus/

    Good hold for long term growth. If the company can deliver on their $50m profit goal in three years up from forecast $27m+ this year expect a commensurate lift in the SP over that timeframe !
    Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing

  2. #1722
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing
    Only half their business is onshore. If NZ's tourism drops then chances are that USA's will increase.

  3. #1723
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing
    International travel has never been cheaper in real terms and I expect that trend to continue with more efficient aircraft design evolving over time. N.Z. is one of the four safest countries in the world to visit, is relatively clean, unpolluted and uncrowded, (although the queue's at Queenstown's gondola can be frustrating). All the ructions in the middle east, terrorism threats in Europe and chaos in many other parts of the world all tend to suggest N.Z. will remain an extremely attractive place to visit. With hotel prices increasing in N.Z. a fair bit lately and difficulty getting a hotel booking in peak season...join the dots to see why demand for THL's motorhomes will remain very strong.

    No worries, earnings should roughly double over the next three years and the SP is highly likely to follow suit
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #1724
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    I like the optimism and largely agree, but I think that every 8 years or so, there's a lul in the economy, at which point there will be a lul in tourism. Ok, that's probably all shares effected, but I just wonder how well THL can survive with practically no one using their products / services. In a general downturn, many other businesses keep operating and selling, they just get less profit / sales and have a worrisome outlook. I wonder if THL will be different and how they would handle something like that. Looking at their historic SP, they dropped 85% during the GRC period and took about 8 years to recover. Their historic SP does kinda look cyclical. Their low is about $1, their high is about $3. Everything is ticking along great at the moment and they're about $4. Maybe they'll get another good couple of years and go to $7, but when turbulance hits, will they have to close everything, lose all their money and drop back to $1, only to have to spend the next 5 years steadily growing back to where they were again?

    Don't mistake this negativity for negativity against THL. I actually like this company and have made a few dollar on it. I like the business, I like the way they grow, I like the dividend policy, etc. It's a good share. I've just marked it as cyclical, so a buy when it starts to pick up after bad times and a sell when you've made a pile of money on it.

    Also I'm very focused on risk at the moment, because there's a lot of very volitle politics / policies being generated and also a lot of crazy stuff going on regarding immigration (home and abroad). That said, I largely like NZ's economic prospects. Just looking at timing an exit for my own financial strategy & lifestyle reasons over this next year or two.


  5. #1725
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    lewy me old mate - anything cyclical in this chart?

    Maybe a 'lull' every now and again but visitor numbers always seem to go up
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #1726
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    lewy - i've added the THL share price (as at December each year) to that vistors chart

    Yeah, has a cyclical look to it but that is because of things not related to actual tourism activity. A lot of it due to thl performance and market sentiment

    My memory is long

    • Early 2000's when shareprice halved - THL under Pickup were hopeless at every thing they did. The standing joke at the time was that the more visitor numbers the less thl made. Good eh
    • from 2003 to 2007 there was hope and things get sort of better but they were still pretty useless.
    • The shareprice did get close to $3 in 2007 but that was after some stupid Aussie company bid $2.80 (I think) for them. The takeover was rejected. (That company went broke shortly afterwards anyway)
    • Post that was the GFC came about and the shareprice fell away. thl essentially lost money through this period and it was never worth more than $1.50 anyway (let alone $2.70) so the drop looks worse on the chart. The low of 40/50 cents probably reflected how hopeless thl were.
    • Alluding to one of your points most stocks fell during that period as PE ratios contracted quite markedly
    • Rob Campbell came on board in 2013 and focused thl on actually doing good things. With that increase in vistir numbers as a good tailwind and acquisitions things have come good. Nice chart eh
    • Looking forward they reckon profits will double in the next few years. Shareprice hasn't really factored that in yet. Your concerns about a 'lull' in vistor numbers would likely have some negative impact on thl shareprice (if the 'lull' actually happened) but that slack would be picked up by their global acquistions
    • Worst case for shareprice iis if there was a 'lull' in NZ and markets collapsed (lower PEs etc) - but I reckon the increased earnings would mitigate a lot of the damage and as such see see current price as about the worst it would get to.
    • Almost saying nothing to lose?


    That's how I see it anyway
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 01-03-2017 at 07:19 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1727
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    Hi w69,

    Great chart and even better synopsis, thanks!

    I will revise my view on this advice. I'm not sure if it will change my investment strategy regarding THL, but it will change my thinking on it. Maybe I could considered it a long hold on this information.

  8. #1728
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    No question Rob Campbell has made a massive difference and is doing a superb job at SUM too.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #1729
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    Morning, how do you participate in THL div reinvestment plan?

  10. #1730
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    Quote Originally Posted by NZSilver View Post
    Morning, how do you participate in THL div reinvestment plan?
    Great question, docs coming soon I think ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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