THL - Tourism Holdings

[lawson]

Are they getting rid of the lot or are they just repositioning ?

The only SSH notice to date on March 20 stated they had made a reduction in holdings from 16.705.000 to 16,000.000

That doesn't mean there won't be another notice and they are offloading more, but it also doesn't necessarily mean that the person(s) selling now is/are Milford.

[golden city]

I am still a strong believer from 50c...all the way to 4.00.., looking at increasing dividends each half

[iceman]

I am still a strong believer from 50c...all the way to 4.00.., looking at increasing dividends each half

Agree GC. The Company is on record saying they expect NPAT to reach $50M by 2020. If they achieve that, which in my view they are on track to do at present with the very favourable winds for the industry, I see no reason why dividends can not increase 70-85% from current level by then. With a current PE of around 16, I do not think that expected growth is fully built into the SP so expect a healthy increase in SP as well, as they record their progress each year.

The biggest concern I have is whether there will be any Trump effect negatively affecting tourism into the USA.

Discl: Currently my biggest holding and still accumulating

[Beagle]

Agree GC. The Company is on record saying they expect NPAT to reach $50M by 2020. If they achieve that, which in my view they are on track to do at present with the very favourable winds for the industry, I see no reason why dividends can not increase 70-85% from current level by then. With a current PE of around 16, I do not think that expected growth is fully built into the SP so expect a healthy increase in SP as well, as they record their progress each year.

The biggest concern I have is whether there will be any Trump effect negatively affecting tourism into the USA.

Discl: Currently my biggest holding and still accumulating

I believe there are genuine grounds for concern in that regard although I think from memory about 50% of the business done in the States is from domestic sources so I'm not expecting a huge effect but I think there will be some which is possibly why the SP has come back a little lately since Mr Trump seems to have a great deal of trouble winning friends and influencing people. No question in my mind Trump is a one term president, (assuming he doesn't get impeached earlier or resign or get assassinated), so on a DCF basis in the long term this makes only a modest amount of difference to those business units valuation given only an expected modest impact on tourism there. Pullback in recent weeks seems about right to me.

[winner69]

I hope thl are 'optimising' fares to enhance shareholder returns ......hopefully not going overboard but not forgetting this opportunity only comes along every five(?) years or so

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11830439

[winner69]

thl share price about 340 when they came out with their $50m NPAT in 2020 target


Market not bought into that doubling of profit stuff

Markets supposed to be 'forward looking' but often a bit slow off the mark

One can still get this growth on the cheap - the early bird gets the worms

[iceman]

thl share price about 340 when they came out with their $50m NPAT in 2020 target


Market not bought into that doubling of profit stuff

Markets supposed to be 'forward looking' but often a bit slow off the mark

One can still get this growth on the cheap - the early bird gets the worms

Quite a lot of that forecasted growth or about USD 6M expected to come from EL Monte so I think we and Mr Market are watching to see how they progress in the USA. Agree though that the Market seems hesitant. Quite happy with that as it gives me more time to accumulate.

[JeremyALD]

I am a bit worried about the US business. There's lots of reports that Tourism is in for a rough couple of years with Trump's policies and perceptions of travellers overseas. This could impact sales quite significantly. I haven't seen any stats on domestic travel in the US but I presume that will still be strong which could offset impacts a bit.

https://www.ft.com/content/d8d3402a-...1-37e417ee6c76

[iceman]

Agree JeremyALD. This is a real risk for the US tourism business and with El Monde customer base being about 50% European, this is important for THL. I am hopeful that those Europeans that want to visit the USA will do so pretty much regardless of Trump policies, unless they directly make it more difficult for them to visit.

[Beagle]

Talk amongst regular travelers I know of four hour entry processes to the States at LAX are not helping. Who wants to stand in queues for four hours after a twelve hour flight ? Not me that's for sure.
I think the market needs to see evidence that the American investment is tracking as anticipated before this can be rerated above $4. Some patience will be required with this one I feel.