THL - Tourism Holdings

[Arbroath]

perhaps a year or two of continual 20+% growth warrants a premium and not the absurd discount we've been seeing

I have a conservative forward valuation target of $6.50-6.75 for 2020 when they have made $50m npat and are on 15x. They just have to keep executing well - of course there are risks but if the world/markets don't hit the skids then think $6+ is likely imho.

[Beagle]

Outstanding result. Forcast EBIT 36 - 39 million next year, awesome.

Agree and most pleasantly surprising. Factor in they have a long history of upgrading and beating forecasts and we could see low $40m's as early as FY18 in which case they might see their $50m forecast in FY19 well ahead of their FY20 target ! Kudos to Rob Campbell's leadership !

[Oliver Mander]

Well done THL!! Particularly like their strong growth outside of NZ. This is now a very well balanced multinational company. I also like their foray into the digital world and their ability to become an airbnb of the RV world.

Based on these results THL currently undervalued. Roll on $5.00 plus.

Disc. Holding and happy.

Stunning result. Strong growth continues...my own long-term valuation sits at over $7 now (with the updated forecasts), so would be expecting significant upside long-term. Love the diversity of earnings too, and the focus on simplifying the back office they seem to allude to in the US. Agree with left field that its turning into a mini-multinational...

Watch points may be debt levels = especially if they do another debt-fuelled acquisition to get their target of $50m by 2020. Diluted EPS may be a factor here as well.

But a relatively minor comment in context.

Disc: very happy holder :-)!

[hardt]

I have a conservative forward valuation target of $6.50-6.75 for 2020 when they have made $50m npat and are on 15x. They just have to keep executing well - of course there are risks but if the world/markets don't hit the skids then think $6+ is likely imho.

I valued it at $5.5 currently... bought some more this morning at 451.

[Beagle]

I valued it at $5.5 currently... bought some more this morning at 451.

Agree 100%. The way this is growing it should command a 2018 PE in the late teens which is supportive of mid $5 now so I also bought more at the open.

[sb9]

Nice price action before results out next week..boosted by large crossing of 250k at 4.32 a piece.

4.50 on results day perhaps??

Posted last week on 17th...pretty good prediction...

[percy]

perhaps a year or two of continual 20+% growth warrants a premium and not the absurd discount we've been seeing

Certainly does..THL eps growth is now a lot higher than their PE ratio.Very seldom do we see this.Means a huge margin of safety,as does the increasing divie..

I must thank Noodles for steering me and others into investing in THL.
I like the sector so much I also brought ATL in Aussie,just to be "well positioned."

[BlackPeter]

Sure - a good result, though revenue growth slightly below analyst predictions and RoE moving into the wrong direction (I know, only for buying their latest acquisition in the wrong season).

Wondering however about a bit too much excitement on this thread - haven't seen too many trends so far continuing upwards forever.

Just being curious - what could end the current growth? The next terrorist attack? Trumps "everybody but America is second" policies? The next economic downturn (whenever this is due)? The clear limitations of the NZ infrastructure?

Enjoy the ride while it lasts ... but in my view the best time to develop an exit strategy is now - and the best time to execute it might be at the peak ...

[percy]

BP.Tourism is growing very quickly around the world.In NZ I see a great number of camper vans on the road,year round now.Not only overseas visitors but NZders travelling.
An aging world population with money and time on their hands will underpin this sector for years to come.
And young people are making greater use of cheaper air fares to travel the world.
At the peak? No way, the fun is just starting.!

[Beagle]

Agree with Percy on this one and I see congestion in key tourist spots only getting far worse than it already is in the future meaning people will be even more inclined towards getting away from congested hotels and hot spots and enjoying the great outdoors i.e. a greater propensity toward campervan rentals.
THL have a well established history of increasing guidance during the year so I think it is perfectly reasonable at this stage to work with the top end of existing guidance at $39m after tax which translates to eps of 32.45 cents per share. Apply whatever forward PE you think is appropriate and make your investment decision accordingly.
Looking further out than FY18 I see no reason to disbelieve their FY20 target of $50m and they'll probably get there sooner than that.