THL - Tourism Holdings

[Yoda]

Thanks Justin, all very encouraging . Every bit helps , and this would be pure office work with no vehicles to maintain , so low overheads more profit. Correct ?

[JeremyALD]

Australia GM has sold down over 300k worth of shares, half total holding...should we read anything into this?

[Beagle]

Probably he realises that a bit of diversification in one's portfolio is a good thing. I think its easy to over read / overreact to insiders selling.
Classic case in point, one of my mates who is sadly banned from here but an active participant in another forum was all over me giving me advice to quit ATM when the CEO sold down a while back in the mid $2 mark. Thankfully I thanked him for his opinion and told him I'd watch the TA signals. I think that's a sound strategy in this case too and in AIR last week also.

[JeremyALD]

Probably he realises that a bit of diversification in one's portfolio is a good thing. I think its easy to over read / overreact to insiders selling.
Classic case in point, one of my mates who is sadly banned from here but an active participant in another forum was all over me giving me advice to quit ATM when the CEO sold down a while back in the mid $2 mark. Thankfully I thanked him for his opinion and told him I'd watch the TA signals. I think that's a sound strategy in this case too and in AIR last week also.

Agree Beagle looking forward to the ASM

[Benny1]

Looking forward to the ASM too!!! Especially if the food is anywhere near as good as the OCA meeting a few weeks ago at the same venue!

Just a quick question...does anyone on here rent out their own campervans under the THL Mighway platform?
Would like to know if its a good thing to get into?

[Benny1]

Been a bit of a sell off over the last day and a half?

Nervous investors with the whole North Korea thing happening?
Or is Winston going to ban all from foreigners driving on our roads???

[peat]

Been a bit of a sell off over the last day and a half?

North America not going so well ??
Sth Island at capacity .

[Benny1]

North America not going so well ??
Sth Island at capacity .

Just had a look at Stocknessmonster...looks very low volume ...so probably just some small profit taking going on....

[BlackPeter]

From a TA perspective: Just touched the MA30 (which it does from time to time) - no worries (yet).

From a risk / reward perspective: There are clearly some signs around that the industry is reaching some (local) limits: capacity constraints in NZ, anti tourism sentiment in NZ (remember the outcry every time a tourist causes an accident - nobody cares though when Kiwis are killing Kiwis on our roads), US tourism taking a dent, a number of airlines reducing flights and / or going bust this year (Air Berlin, Alitalia, Monarch). Could these all be clear indications for tourism reaching the peak? I guess they could ... but no - there is only one direction for THL - and this is up - is it?

On the other hand - a dropping NZD is good for THL.

Anyway - the stars are not any more aligned, but I am sure the market will sort it out.

[JeremyALD]

From a TA perspective: Just touched the MA30 (which it does from time to time) - no worries (yet).

From a risk / reward perspective: There are clearly some signs around that the industry is reaching some (local) limits: capacity constraints in NZ, anti tourism sentiment in NZ (remember the outcry every time a tourist causes an accident - nobody cares though when Kiwis are killing Kiwis on our roads), US tourism taking a dent, a number of airlines reducing flights and / or going bust this year (Air Berlin, Alitalia, Monarch). Could these all be clear indications for tourism reaching the peak? I guess they could ... but no - there is only one direction for THL - and this is up - is it?

On the other hand - a dropping NZD is good for THL.

Anyway - the stars are not any more aligned, but I am sure the market will sort it out.

NZ at capacity is kind of a good thing for THL. If you can't get a hotel why not get a campervan? The NZ business remains very strong and will continue to do very well for the next few years.

The major concern has always been the US. Undoubtedly there's been a Trump Slump this year driven by policies, uncertainty and a high US dollar. In particular the Canadian dollar has been weak. I was doing some research and Europeans have not been visiting as much this year and are down about 10% YOY.

In saying this THL said they are on track for 50m by 2020 and I have no reason they won't achieve this, unless a war breaks put with NK in which case this stock will get hammered, but then so will a lot of others.