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  1. #16
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    From the CEO's address THL sys it has a market dominant position and a well defined strategy. The address also says:

    "Although the yields are currently challenging, Explore More and our rebranded Backpacker product has gained market dominance and has curtailed the growth and product mix of competitors. More importantly, we have extended the useful rental life of our smaller vehicles in preference to selling them to low cost start-ups.
    Over the next 12 months we will continue to grow our discount product offerings particularly, as we are seeing signs of consumers chasing value in the tighter economic environment."

    To me, that implies that the biggest threat to yield in the Maui and Britz brands are the expanding Explore More and Backpacker brands.

  2. #17
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    Default Thl

    please do tell, would you buy back in to THL in this recession?

  3. #18
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Cool

    certainly wouldn't be the worse stock to hold if the divies keep coming at 11c = 15% yield
    both NZ & AUS are great countries to travel by campers THL have core holdings in both
    whats others views at 60c-70c little downside in CAP with KEY taking on tourism role??

    On the watchlist for the mo
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  4. #19
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    LOL ... Zero chance of that!
    Of a 11c ann divie? or the worse stock to hold ?
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  5. #20
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    Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.

  6. #21
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    Anyone know THL's debt level?

    Saves me time going throu the annual report.

    Cheers
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  7. #22
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by J R Ewing View Post
    Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.
    So no dividend is a bad result?

    THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So no dividend is a bad result?

    THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward
    This result is not unexpected in the current environment. It is likely that some competitors are finding things equally tough. Their comments about a trend towards last minute bookings and an oversupply in the industry is correct. Right now, at the absolute peak tourist season, there are plenty of vehicles available. The strategy of arriving in Auckland and shopping for the best deal can pay off this year (although it is still risky). A few years ago anyone trying this spent the first few days of the holiday searching for ANY vehicle. After walking the streets and phoning around they would take whatever was offered at more or less any price!

    I do find it a bit rich that THL blames the rest of the market for this oversupply. They have recently launched and expanded Explore More, which is a market leader in terms of unsustainably low prices. This brand actually guarantees to have the lowest prices. THL rationalizes this as being a "defensive" position, but I do think it will be difficult to transform this brand (and Backpacker) into higher yield operations later on.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by patsy View Post
    Interestingly, a couple of days ago, Daniel Alpe (son of Chris Alpe, founder of THL's Maui and who now operates Ezy Rentals after leaving THL), said that campervan rental volumes were holding pretty well so I don't buy THL's argument that there is an oversupply in the market.
    Yes, some operators are maintaining or increasing volumes - although this in itself doesn't necessarily equate to maintaining bottom line performance. Prices are just as important as utilisation. I wasn't suggesting that THL had out-performed the rest of the industry or that their current situation was an inevitable result of the market conditions. My original point some weeks ago was that given THL's relatively low profitability when compared with turnover in the boom periods, the prospects of a dividend once the downturn arrived was very low. If they had been able to declare even a modest interim dividend, in my opinion that would have been an excellent result. They have made an improvement to the balance sheet and should be commended for that.

    I doubt that there are any rental operators, Ezy (now Jucy) included, that are enjoying the current market conditions. There IS an oversupply of both cars and campervans - and as a consequence "normal" summer rates have only been achieved over the Xmas and February peaks. Rates have been offered over this summer that would previously only have been available in the off-season, and THL (and others including Jucy) have lead the way in this regard. Note that Jucy ALSO guarantees to have the cheapest prices. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out where this is heading!

  10. #25
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    SARS and bird flu stuffed the THL shareprice so what will swine flu do it?

  11. #26
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    By Jenny Ruth

    Tuesday 28th April 2009


    Campervan rental operator Tourism Holdings' extensive restructuring over
    recent years means it is now focused on the free and independent traveler
    (FIT) market, says McDouall Stuart.

    "This segment is likely to offer the highest growth in the future and should
    boost opportunities in motor home rentals in both Australia and New
    Zealand," it says. Increasing competition between airlines and higher
    tourism promotion spending in New Zealand and Australia are likely to
    enhance the company's prospects.

    It is also likely to be assisted by the recent weakness in both the New
    Zealand and Australian dollars, if sustained, it says.

    Nevertheless, margins can be volatile as high fixed costs and high capital
    expenditure makes it susceptible to demand fluctuations. And the company
    didn't pay an interim dividend as directors focused on debt reduction in the
    uncertain global economic environment.

    "Tourism flow will continue to be adversely impacted by the global economic
    conditions."

    It is forecasting no profit this year, compared with $14.3 million last
    year, and just $1.4 million in 2010, rising to $4.6 million in 2011. While
    it values the shares at 77 cents compared with the 45 cent share market
    price in late April, its recommendation is "hold" until the global economy
    improves.



    BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Tourism Holdings (THL) as HOLD


    They must be valuing on the basis of assets I suppose. $75 million works out as quite a large multiple of profit no matter which of the three years you use! I trust that forecast for 2011 is conservative - isn't that Rugby World Cup year?

  12. #27
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    Article from stuff.co.nz



    Workers at Hamilton-based Caravans International Munro may find out next week if a further 67 jobs are to go, two months after the company's last round of redundancies.

    CI Munro, which builds and rents out motorhomes and caravans, is a division of Tourism Holdings Ltd, and reported a loss of $3.2 million in the six months to December 31.

    The company told workers on Tuesday of its planned 67 redundancies, and expected to finish consulting with staff and the union by next Tuesday.

    Tourism Holdings chief financial officer Ian Lewington told NZPA there had been no intention to make further cuts after 20 positions were culled in February.

    The company had managed to retain about 12 others at that time by moving them to the growing fabrication business.

    "Since then the outlook for tourism has deteriorated and the uncertainty in the world economy has meant the outlook for the build requirements in terms of caravans and motorhomes is lower than expected," Mr Lewington said.

    If the full 67 go, the company will have almost halved in size from the beginning of the year when it employed more than 170 staff.

    The company was not hopeful an alternative to job cuts would be found, but would consider any changes that made sense.

    The Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union (EPMU) had entered consultation with the company to seek alternatives, such as introducing a nine-day fortnight.

    "The company had indicated to me that they had looked at the nine-day fortnight but they don't believe it's workable," union organiser Peter Cooper-Davies said.

    "I would say that the EPMU spent three weeks talking with Fisher & Paykel on the proposed deal that they did under the nine-day fortnight."

    Fisher & Paykel Appliances said last month that signing up to the Government's nine-day fortnight until September would prevent about 60 redundancies in its Auckland refrigeration assembly workforce.

    The company has since announced nearly 30 further job losses, although they were in different divisions of the business.

    Mr Cooper-Davies had asked for an extension to the one-week consultation period, which was the minimum required under the collective agreement.

    "Whilst the company has met their requirements in regards to consultation for redundancies, as per the collective, I believe due to the actual impact it's going to have -- you're talking probably three-quarters of the production line staff going -- that it would have been nice to have been told earlier," he said.

    End


    That will result in an overall aging of the fleet, and possibly increased emphasis on the Backpacker and ExploreMore brands. Perhaps THL sees the FIT market segment as being less quality conscious? The danger in this approach is that it could take a significant capital injection in a few years time to bring the fleet back to a relatively young age in order to offer the premium product.

  13. #28
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    Default Who's Selling? - Highest Volume in almost 2 years

    There were two significant end of day trades today of 1.5M shares at 40c and 1.9M at 40.5c taking the SP lower. From my observation this the largest volume in nearly 2 years and the 3rd highest over 10 years. A larger investor getting out? Any views as to who is selling and why?.

    DISC: watcher, not owner

  14. #29
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    Well spotted gt .... yes a big volume day.

    Could be AXA as they have been selling down for a while and as June 30 conveniently was an end of a quarter thought may have thought it better not having to own up to to having too many ... conjecture only. Schroeders had a SSH notice the other day as well.

    Story in yesterdays paper saying no wage increase for the workers and saying something like 'at best no indication of next year being better than this year' .... round about way of saying next yaer stuffed i think

    However somebody must have bought these shares eh ... must think them a bargain - goen from sub $1 to good prices in the past bur THL is a perennial underperformer.

    I bet punters wishing they took $2.80 on offer a year or so ago .... but then the share was so underpriced on potential it was going to $5 .... yeah right
    Last edited by winner69; 30-06-2009 at 07:47 PM.

  15. #30
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    But then the outfit who wanted to buy them went bust anyway

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