THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...92/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

[winner69]

That is a USA article, so treat the $4.06 as US$4.06

But they say share price is 492 and the workings seem to be nzd

[Arbroath]

The thl statement this morning feels a bit like an old fashioned don't sell notice - they clearly are worried about a takeover being launched.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/309423

[RTM]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

[winner69]

The thl statement this morning feels a bit like an old fashioned don't sell notice - they clearly are worried about a takeover being launched.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/309423

Sounds like it eh

Looks like 6 bucks is on the way ....sooner than later

Having suitors is best way of enhancing shareholder value.

[Balance]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

They can always tighten legislation.

Best defence against takeover is performance, and recognition of performance in sp.

[winner69]

DCF or multiples don’t matter re valuations - thl is worth what the Chinese are willing to pay

If they offer 6 bucks grant Thornton or whoever will do some sums and say on DCF basis it’s worth $5.90-$6.45

Bring it on please

[iceman]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

So far they've only talked about "essential infrastructure" and land. Don't think there's any chance of companies like THL currently being on their radar screens. I'd also want it to stay on the NZX

[percy]

DCF or multiples don’t matter re valuations - thl is worth what the Chinese are willing to pay

If they offer 6 bucks grant Thornton or whoever will do some sums and say on DCF basis it’s worth $5.90-$6.45

Bring it on please

Exactly right.!...............

[sb9]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...92/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.