THL - Tourism Holdings

[Justin]

Today secured at $5.95 despite the horrible weather

[ohpark0119]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read (read-only)

[Scrunch]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read

Except that Forsyth were only able to get up to a target price of $5.60 (not something starting with a 6). Then again, their previous target of $4.75 was well south of current market prices. DYOR

[winner69]

Except that Forsyth were only able to get up to a target price of $5.60 (not something starting with a 6). Then again, their previous target of $4.75 was well south of current market prices. DYOR

I take it you think that you think that Suzannes’s valuation is a load of the proverbial?

Interesting though her forecast earnings are higher than ‘company guidance’. The financial models she uses still comes out with a target of about what the price is today...also means her actual valuation of the company is around $5.00

So Suzanne pretty bullish on thl prospects .....can’t deny her that ....maybe thl shareprice currently is a bit high ...and still has a takeover premium baked in?

[Beagle]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read

So putting my headlights on full beam so to speak if it looks like they'll achieve their $56m in 2020 which on 121m shares = 46.3 cps and ongoing profit growth prospects look sound the stock could continue to trade on a forward PE of about 18 like it is now so we could see late 2019 or early 2020 the SP about 18 x 46.3 cps = $8.33. Further, THL has an excellent track record of beating market expectations. Looks like a sound core portfolio stock to me.

[oldtech]

So Suzanne pretty bullish on thl prospects .....can’t deny her that ....maybe thl shareprice currently is a bit high ...and still has a takeover premium baked in?

It looked to me that the shareprice rose quite sharply during the Christmas holiday period (why, I don't know) to a high of 6.05 on the 29th of December. I felt it had got ahead of itself, and it is now falling back towards the 50 day MA.

Trading currently at 5.68, and from the looks of things could well drop a bit further yet.

[Oliver Mander]

It looked to me that the shareprice rose quite sharply during the Christmas holiday period (why, I don't know) to a high of 6.05 on the 29th of December. I felt it had got ahead of itself, and it is now falling back towards the 50 day MA.

Trading currently at 5.68, and from the looks of things could well drop a bit further yet.

You might be right from a Tech analysis perspective...but from a value / fundamental perspective I think Beagle is closer to the truth. $5.68 actually looks cheap to me, in spite of the large rise over the last few months. Makes a forward PE of less than 18 for a company that is delivering quality growth. I'm honestly surprised its dropping at the moment...perhaps caught up in the general market malaise?

Might even dip my paw in for more...

[Benny1]

You might be right from a Tech analysis perspective...but from a value / fundamental perspective I think Beagle is closer to the truth. $5.68 actually looks cheap to me, in spite of the large rise over the last few months. Makes a forward PE of less than 18 for a company that is delivering quality growth. I'm honestly surprised its dropping at the moment...perhaps caught up in the general market malaise?

Might even dip my paw in for more...

Yep I've got an order in at the moment but may add a few more me thinks....

Good long term hold, would be even better if another acquisition is announced over the next year or so...as AIR likes to say...Where to next???

[oldtech]

Yes, I was looking at purely the TA side ... I'm currently trying to find some more funds to pick up a few more myself ...

[Beagle]

I'm fully expecting them to hit their $50m target 1 year early in 2019, (which represents EPS of 41.3 cps) so this time next year I would expect them to be trading on a forward PE of about 18 times that. My 1 year price target is thus $7.43. Also can't rule out further bolt on acquisitions or a takeover. I used to be a client of Forsyth Barr, (note the past tense).