THL - Tourism Holdings

**Beagle** · 28-08-2018, 09:14 AM

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURI...92/financials/

Result appears short of average analyst expectations. I am expecting significant analyst downgrades for FY19 and 20.
Could be an interesting day on the NZX for THL.

**winner69** · 28-08-2018, 09:23 AM

Originally Posted by King1212

$199 m debts...why they don't use the dividend to pay down the debts? Take the opportunity while the economy n the business are still good?

Punters would not be happy would they?

**winner69** · 28-08-2018, 09:27 AM

Free Cash Flow of ~$21m not much for a company with an Enterprise Value of just under a billion

I do note they put a special footnote on one of the slides aimed at ‘investors’ like me

**Patient Panda** · 28-08-2018, 09:32 AM

“We continue to focus on being around 2.0 x debt to EBITDA on a rolling basis”

still a wee way to go

**couta1** · 28-08-2018, 09:33 AM

Winner your very gloomy this morning, must be rain on the way, suggested cure would be a nice walk on the beach and a feed of oysters.

**Beagle** · 28-08-2018, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Free Cash Flow of ~$21m not much for a company with an Enterprise Value of just under a billion

I do note they put a special footnote on one of the slides aimed at ‘investors’ like me

One of the reasons for modest cash flow is they're struggling with sales of used vehicles exiting their fleet. see page 13 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...893/285512.pdf Also struggling with used vehicles exiting their fleet in the states. This cuts to the core of their business, buy well, rent well and sell well...undermine the last part of this equation you undermine the whole investment thesis.
This is hardly surprising seeing as we have such low business confidence. (I think its mostly business people who are in the position to buy an ex rental RV which lets face it is an entirely discretionary purchase). 100 vehicle shortfall doesn't sound like a lot but its perhaps close to $10m cash not coming in the door. Add that to the shortfall in ex rental sales in the US, (not disclosed ?), and this is a pretty sizeable issue.

$24.3m gain on Th2 investment is nothing more that creative accounting.

Still...Rob reckons their new target when they set it will be heaps more than $50m...so who knows...

**Patient Panda** · 28-08-2018, 09:58 AM

No matter the mood its always a great time for oysters.

beagle not sure its a business confidence issue as both US and NZ having the same issue of low sales and US ostensibly very happy business wise.

Leftover NZ sales mainly due to the large purchase of vehicles from Jucy which has caused a backlog, unless theres something I missed.

anyone know why road bear has such drastically better ROFE?

**Patient Panda** · 28-08-2018, 10:03 AM

Look at that ROFE for the tourism business of 49%, a thing of beauty. Wish they could scale it up a bit. Essentially 50c profit per dollar of assets regardless if its debt or equity funded. Incredible.