THL - Tourism Holdings

[44wishlists]

Yep .....will one day be viewed and valued as a tech company (hopefully)

Totally agreed. For holder who is deciding to hold on or ditch the boat, maybe a good question to ask yourself is THL is tech company? IMO, a large part of its current price is viewed and valued as it is one.

[Oliver Mander]

Is totally over priced at the moment based on current and expected performance but impending acquisitions will keep the excitment up

Just imagine a big(ish) meaningful acquisition and a new profit target of $80m .....that would get the adrenalin going and a share price close to 10 bucks

A decent acquisition might mean a capital raise but punters won’t mind,

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.
Having said that, I think they are a pretty ordinary set of results;
1) I don't recall any earlier signal at the time of setting up th2 that there would be a massive slug of further capex going into it. Is probably obvious that's required in retrospect.
2) As Beagle said, dressing up a poor 2H with a one-off 'revaluation' gain is pretty crap. Maybe the market doesn't recognise value (arrogant to say), but maybe they just overpaid (much more likely). In which case its not unrealised income, its poor use of capital.
3) The cashflow figures are indeed concerning - if they really need cash to fund a new digital business stream, would rather they stopped the divvy rather than borrowed more.
4) Its all very well to say that th2 is a good investment - but there is an argument to say its quite a long way removed from its current operations. I originally invested in a tourism company. If I wanted a tech company, I'd have invested in one of those.

For now, I'll hang on to my position - still believe its a good business with solid underlying growth. I'm likely to rebalance to reflect a different risk profile at one point though. But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous. Not to mention that there is clearly a cashflow issue - growing pains maybe, but to have that at the same time as establishing a brand-new business that needs heavy investment is tricky. my own fault - should have foreseen the cashflow risk earlier. but perhaps THL's exec team should have done the same...??

With an increased risk profile, likely that there will be higher expectations of future returns. That will act as a brake on the SP for at least the next year imho (altho may be impacted by any forecast / trading updates at ASM).

[Beagle]

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.
Having said that, I think they are a pretty ordinary set of results;
1) I don't recall any earlier signal at the time of setting up th2 that there would be a massive slug of further capex going into it. Is probably obvious that's required in retrospect.
2) As Beagle said, dressing up a poor 2H with a one-off 'revaluation' gain is pretty crap. Maybe the market doesn't recognise value (arrogant to say), but maybe they just overpaid (much more likely). In which case its not unrealised income, its poor use of capital.
3) The cashflow figures are indeed concerning - if they really need cash to fund a new digital business stream, would rather they stopped the divvy rather than borrowed more.
4) Its all very well to say that th2 is a good investment - but there is an argument to say its quite a long way removed from its current operations. I originally invested in a tourism company. If I wanted a tech company, I'd have invested in one of those.

For now, I'll hang on to my position - still believe its a good business with solid underlying growth. I'm likely to rebalance to reflect a different risk profile at one point though. But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous. Not to mention that there is clearly a cashflow issue - growing pains maybe, but to have that at the same time as establishing a brand-new business that needs heavy investment is tricky. my own fault - should have foreseen the cashflow risk earlier. but perhaps THL's exec team should have done the same...??

With an increased risk profile, likely that there will be higher expectations of future returns. That will act as a brake on the SP for at least the next year imho (altho may be impacted by any forecast / trading updates at ASM).

Good honest post. What raised my eyebrow was the language around the new revised long term profit goal. It did seem a bit OTT and at odds with their previous understated matter of fact style. Suppose some would say that's just the way tech companies are...the more growth you're projecting the more arrogant one becomes until....eventually... one becomes Elon Musk lol

I think a lot of people invested in a New Zealand tourism company a while back and the company is becoming something else... Some will relish the next stage of the journey going global as they put it despite the lower projected profit in FY19, others will look for something closer to home.

[Patient Panda]

Every time I've followed a share foray into the USA it's been hard going. I decided to take profits from this one at 5.80

To be fair THL has been in the USA for a while with Roadbear which has been doing very well and now El Monte doesn’t look to be doing too badly.

THL certainly not being valued as a tech company at present if it was its PE would be 30+ with almost double its current shareprice. Once its up and running THLs tech way more valuable than Pushpay to say the least.


I imagine THL has had a bit’ve a rough time with their CFO being sick for so long and all the extra work and pressure that gets displaced onto others as a result but many of you might be in for a pleasant surprise come the ASM in October. I also would not be surprised at all to see an acquisition announced very soon and probably a capital raise to go with it.

[Oliver Mander]

Good honest post. What raised my eyebrow was the language around the new revised long term profit goal. It did seem a bit OTT and at odds with their previous understated matter of fact style. Suppose some would say that's just the way tech companies are...the more growth you're projecting the more arrogant one becomes until....eventually... one becomes Elon Musk lol

I think a lot of people invested in a New Zealand tourism company a while back and the company is becoming something else... Some will relish the next stage of the journey going global as they put it despite the lower projected profit in FY19, others will look for something closer to home.

I actually like the fact that they are a mini-multinational. That for me was a plus. I just also like that their sector is (was?) 'tourism'. I have enough tech stocks elsewhere...
And I agree with you on the language for FY19. Very odd.

[Scrunch]

Strange day of trading today. I guess Mr market is trying to figure out where to price this stock. Opened close to yesterdays close of $5.93. Sank down to $5.70 then recovered to close up 7c at $6.00. 5% difference between the low and high of the day.

[Justin]

And big volume traded today closed to 6

[golden city]

We could be close to a acqusition announcement or somebody knows more. Another reason could be citic China topping up

[iceman]

We could be close to a acqusition announcement or somebody knows more. Another reason could be citic China topping up

Its pretty clear from the Annual Report that they already have something in the pipeline so yes I think we will see an acquisition announcement very soon, no later than the AGM in October

[winner69]

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.

Yes growth higher than PE

But if a lot of that growth has come from acquisitions does that imply that further acquisitions are needed to support current share price? ....is a future acquisition largely built in to $6?