THL - Tourism Holdings

[minimoke]

Might look different in a months time..

Probably will. Good thing is I cant go out and buy anything - so the divi is well locked in.

[Leftfield]

With SP now at $4.96 these Divi reinvestment plans may not really be the best option.

That's my thinking...... another option is to use the $'s for some other bargains that crop up at times like this. Nice to have options and not be 'locked in.'

[Justin]

real P/E around 17 with current SP

[winner69]

real P/E around 17 with current SP

That’s still pretty high eh

[Justin]

That’s still pretty high eh

Especially with furture earning downgrade

[iceman]

Especially with furture earning downgrade

Have you got a link to material on "future earning downgrade" ?

[winner69]

Have you got a link to material on "future earning downgrade" ?

I think Justin is referring to that statement of thl’s that F19 earnings will be lower than F18 because of the investment needed in that new digital initiative

The announcement of the new acquisition can’t be far off .....needed badly to get share price back on track

[iceman]

Do you mean this from the CEO winner ?:
“The creation of TH2 would be the highlight of the year, given the potential of this business. We have made the decision to invest in this business in FY19 to create an even better product and to develop the market faster. We will invest around $15M NZD into the business (thl share).
The outlook for the FY19 result is difficult to determine, given the number of activities under way at present. We will provide more guidance at the Annual Meeting in October.”

Or maybe this from the Chairman:
“We intend making this transition while maintaining a positive income distribution policy, but the focus is on global growth, which requires reinvestment, and there will be times of consolidation to create and execute on the global platform. thl has substantive global opportunity in this context and this is the next chapter in our story.”

I can not see an "earning downgrade" in any recent announcements from THL. For me the announcements are positive. I suppose its a glass half full or half empty question !

[simla]

Results Presentation FY 18, p44 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...893/285512.pdf

"Profit Guidance
We expect the core business to show
growth in revenue and EBIT in the FY19
year.
This will be offset by the losses incurred
with the investment in TH2, which will be
circa $15M NZD before tax for thl’s 50%
share. This will directly impact the P&L in
FY19, but is seen as creating future value
for thl.
There is a potential one-off tax liability (as
referred to at the 2017 Annual Meeting),
which has not yet been determined in
terms of quantity or certainty.
With a number of M&A and business
changing activities still underway in the
business, we believe it is prudent to wait
until the Annual Meeting in October to
review the forecast position for the
Company."

It is somewhat ambiguous. I might read that as there will be extra depreciation, but it might be direct cost.

Also, p43 "CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY19
There is a number of open decisions in the business, and potential M&A activity,
which will have an impact on the financial direction of the business for the year
from a capital expenditure perspective. We have options available for additional
fleet investment in various parts of the world, which have not yet been finalised.
As an indicative guide only, we would expect a baseline capital fleet expenditure
in the range of $190-230M. We expect fleet sales proceeds to be in the range of
$145-165M; again, depending on the options taken for total fleet increases.
We expect to be able to provide more detailed information at the Annual Meeting
in October."

And p6, "SUMMARY OF thl’S POSITION
• Strong profit growth year after year.
• Very strong balance sheet within our
industry (Net Debt:EBITDA of 1.9x).
• Very strong dividend flows and growth
(27cps – up 29%).
• Disciplined asset management and
ROFE performance (ROFE of 15.8%).
• Strategically positioned for growth.
• Investing smartly in new business models."

I don't really read that as being bad myself?

[minimoke]

Currently at $5.12 off a 12 month high of $6.89. Whats happened to that take over chat?