THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Share price sinks below 5 bucks .....back to where it was a year ago

What’s it worth on a PE of 12 ...maybe that’s where it’s heading .....a crash even lower

[Beagle]

FCNZ at $5...who does one believe ? Personally I'd back FCNZ's analysts over Forbar any day of the week.

Tricky thing for dogs and bears catching falling knives using just your claws, (so as to avoid bloodshed). Almost inevitably you slice some of your paw pads and end up limping for quite a while afterwards. TA screams stay out. For mine, they have failed miserably to articulate how their investment in th2 will be earnings accretive. They introduced this into a JV with Thor, wrote the value up and engaged in highly creative accounting saying they'd made a profit. To add insult to injury they're now throwing money at it and who knows how deep that rat hole becomes ?
Show me one major IT project that's gone to plan in terms of cost and time...I think the risks are the cost blows right out and there's no tangible EPS from it.
I also think people have forgotten that tourism can be a cyclical industry...business confidence and now consumer confidence is hitting decade lows.

A far less risky strategy is to wait for the next up cycle, (whenever that may be) and buy into that. Sure it trades cum a nice divvy but this hound reckons paying divvies out of rising debt level's is a dangerous game. They're already 100 campers behind with their re-sales, how are they going to sell these expensive campers if business and consumer confidence is deep in the toilet ? Cash flow to be impacted further ?
And then to trump all these concerns there's the man himself who is doing his best to start a trade war with all and sundry including America's friends...that can't help tourism.

From September...things have got a lot worse since then and yes we have a winner, FCNZ are the ones who were right. FCNZ vs Forbar, talk about a mismatch lol
I think sales of excessive level's of stock of used campervans will be even more problematic now. I think this one has been in an uptrend for so long now that many investors have completely forgotten it was once regarded as a cyclical stock and it could well go back to being regarded as exactly that. Good quality campervans for hire are certainly NOT a cheap holiday option especially in the peak summer season. I think many will choose a cheaper holiday option in the current environment and I think buyers of good used campervans will be very thin on the ground given the prevailing market weakness, (a completely discretionary luxury purchase). I expect a considerable degree of further weakness.
I also think Rob Campbell has too much on his plate now for a man of his age.

[winner69]

Beagle ...they desperately need to announce an acquisition and a new target like 75m profit in 2021 ...otherwise the share price will sink a lot further

[Beagle]

Beagle ...they desperately need to announce an acquisition and a new target like 75m profit in 2021 ...otherwise the share price will sink a lot further

As you've quite correctly pointed out THL has taken on serious debt in recent times and that works fine provided everything is going well but I suspect they're more than a little keen to sell off those "non core operations" (Actually I really like the diversity they add to the business model), to get their debt down a fair bit.
At this stage I don't think they're in a position to make a sizeable acquisition due to their debt burden. Throwing mega millions down a technology (rat hole ?), is doing "wonders" for the share price isn't it !

I really do think that many have forgotten that a relatively expensive campervan holiday is an entirely discretionary purchase, unlike domestic and some international air travel which isn't necessarily discretionary to nearly the same extent. Could this go down to the same or lower PE than AIR if the economic and market s@#% really hits the fan ? Then if we get a serious PE contraction back to what's more normal for a cyclical stock along with a serious earnings contraction, my goodness the downside could be quite considerable !

[couta1]

Looks like Winner and Beagle have taken up the doom and gloom mantle whilst bull is away on holiday.Lol

[Justin]

why there are no buyer？ close to agm soon

[Justin]

Beagle ...they desperately need to announce an acquisition and a new target like 75m profit in 2021 ...otherwise the share price will sink a lot further

there are must really hard to predict the profit on TH2

[Beagle]

Looks like Winner and Beagle have taken up the doom and gloom mantle whilst bull is away on holiday.Lol

Cautious Beagles know that when its raining you stay in your kennel

[winner69]

why there are no buyer？ close to agm soon

......maybe cos not many think it’s a bargain anymore (ie too many risks for an already over valued stock)

[Leftfield]

Pretty glad I locked in gains and cashed up (post 2912). Watching with interest. Still not looking promising from a T/A perspective irrespective of the AGM (and general market sentiment.) Good time to boost cash holdings IMO.