THL - Tourism Holdings

[Arbroath]

Yep and the thing is the only judge is time. Also if you buy something else that does better its all a moot point.

[iceman]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;736079]

Market is just finding a way to price these additional risks in. No reason to attack people as cave dwellers who mention them ...[/QUOTE)

Fair enough BP. I did not intend to offend or attack anyone with my earlier robust comments and apologise if offense was taken. I enjoy and encourage differences of opinion, which is the sole reason for coming onto this site.

Tourism businesses are moving very fast towards more accessability through technology and apps. I can give an example of an adventure tourism business I'm involved in. Only 5 years ago around 50% of our customers walked in of the street. This year it is about 5-10%, rest all pre-booked, mainly through website and app.
I'm glad THL has seen the opportunity this generational change offers and is trying to take advantage of it. I feel there would have been more risk in standing still for THL.

[simla]

I think the doubt is about general conditions, whether expansion as an RV operation is going to work well given a world generally sagging at the knees on the optics, and whether big funds will amplify any such doubt on the share price. th2 is not that big a deal on the finances to my mind and is unlikely to be the reason for such a movement in share price though obviously it is having some effect, just coincidental timing mainly in my opinion.

And obviously nobody can know whether the world mood will affect the tourism industry up or down or over what time scale, or whether the RV might even be countercyclical. Or maybe the electric RVs will be a market winner, or th2 open a big door. Or not. Who knows. The only actual hard data we have is that people are nervous. That isn't much to go on.

But that's just one of those market opportunities that arise from time to time, when opinion diverges. Is the market right or wrong? If wrong, then it's a chance for bold investors. It's a case of deliberately taking the chance or not. I've bought some, mainly because I think these guys are very smart operators who will survive as well as anyone could, but on the understanding that that might not prove later to be the right move. I haven't gone way out on a limb over it.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...air-travelhtml

[minimoke]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...air-travelhtml

blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.

[couta1]

blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.

Yep more PC dribble, climate has always changed and always will, the wheels of the bus go round and round.Lol

[Beagle]

blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. At some stage in the future my sense is there is a genuine possibility we will get a really serious oil shock and fuel prices will go dramatically north, perhaps at a rate and to a level the likes of which are unprecedented. Regardless of climate change or lack thereof that's when we'll get a serious downturn in tourism, perhaps really serious.

[Baa_Baa]

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. At some stage in the future my sense is there is a genuine possibility we will get a really serious oil shock and fuel prices will go dramatically north, perhaps at a rate and to a level the likes of which are unprecedented. Regardless of climate change or lack thereof that's when we'll get a serious downturn in tourism, perhaps really serious.

Why do you say that? The whole world would grind to a stop if that happened. The Oil producers are not stupid enough to cut off their noses, they might go for maximum pain but that strategy always has a salvation clause that they can implement at whim - modify production, manage price. Same old same old, it's been going on for a long time.

[minimoke]

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. .

Oil reserves are a totally different conversation from climate change. In a 2013 Annual Report BP reckons theres enough crude to last o 2088. The US Energy Information Administration reckons 2050 but "

Over time, global reserves will likely increase as new technologies increase production at existing fields and as new projects are developed."

Provided the world doesnt turn like our woolly headed PM and stop exploration our shares in THL should be good for a few years yet.

[Beagle]

Why do you say that? The whole world would grind to a stop if that happened. The Oil producers are not stupid enough to cut off their noses, they might go for maximum pain but that strategy always has a salvation clause that they can implement at whim - modify production, manage price. Same old same old, it's been going on for a long time.

Peak oil is more than just a theory and demand is growing inexorably. Most experts I have listened too on CNBC believe the supply demand situation is tighter now that at any point in recent years. One major exogenous shock or geopolitical event is all it would take at this point to see oil rise dramatically. Long term I think there are legitimate concerns as to whether producers can produce enough to meet demand with oil at reasonably affordable prices. Time will tell.