THL - Tourism Holdings

[Balance]

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURI...92/financials/
Based on $33m forecast = eps = 25.1 cps so $32m the new forecast = 24.3 cps. I really struggle to see the growth in eps that the average analyst is forecasting here and I expect downgrades to come through as growth has well and truly come off the boil. At $4.39 they are on a forward PE of 18.1. I do not think that's cheap by any means in the circumstances.
The chart says there's a VERY clear downtrend and the fundamental's do not look compelling at all for a tourism company. PE of 18 is about as high as this company has ever traded when growth was on track.

I expect the strong correction to continue for quite some time. This looks like a good stock to avoid for a while until a new uptrend commences and that might be quite some time in the future.
Somewhere in the low $3 range provided they can show some traction with the millions they're investing in TH2, it could be worth another look.

Downgrades come in threes.

This is the 'lower end of downgraded forecast' downgrade so two more to go imo.

[winner69]

Cash flows remain abysmal .....negative in last half

Not much of a cash generating business ...so not worth $4.40 ....but probably not as low as Beagles $3 as they can always sell up and get more than that.

Cash is king

[Leftfield]

Downgrades come in threes.
This is the 'lower end of downgraded forecast' downgrade so two more to go imo.

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

[Balance]

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

Can you please point to your TA post where you alerted to the Death Cross mode?

Thanks in advance.

[winner69]

Yesterday Apollo in OZ (ATL) were 'pleased to report solid underlying performance by the Company during a period of consolidation and continued investment.'


Sounds familar and their share price has been hammered 20% since


Tourism not a good sector at the moment

[Lease]

I reckon this may be a sign that general economy may go to recession. When economy is getting worse, people immediately cut recreational expenses which are source of income for THL and ATL.

[winner69]

If the share price drops to $4 then it would be back to where it was two years ago .....seems about where the price should be

Downward trend doesn’t seem to be abating

[Balance]

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

I think you do a great dis-service to the TA community by making hindsight observations and comments like these.

Please back up with forward observations and comments if you want to be taken seriously.

[Leftfield]

I think you do a great dis-service to the TA community by making hindsight observations and comments like these.
Please back up with forward observations and comments if you want to be taken seriously.

Balance I think you do me a disservice. Firstly I am currently traveling and have scant internet availability, so hence this slow reply.

Secondly, let me say that at no stage did I ever post that THL was a sell. I do not usually post details of my buys or sells as I am a relative newcomer on this site, and I do not claim to have your skills or beagles or whatever. i also do not want to be accused of ramping or down ramping.

That said, the death cross on THL occurred in Oct 18 as per the attached chart, and I acted on it at the time.
Attachment 10349

I have checked my records and I note that I sold my THL holdings progressively from19/9/18 to 20/11/18 at prices ranging from $5.10 to $4.60. I am happy to show you evidence of these trades.

I currently have no THL and am happy with my decisions, even if you are not.

[Balance]

Balance I think you do me a disservice. Firstly I am currently traveling and have scant internet availability, so hence this slow reply.

Secondly, let me say that at no stage did I ever post that THL was a sell. I do not usually post details of my buys or sells as I am a relative newcomer on this site, and I do not claim to have your skills or beagles or whatever. i also do not want to be accused of ramping or down ramping.

That said, the death cross on THL occurred in Oct 18 as per the attached chart, and I acted on it at the time.

I have checked my records and I note that I sold my THL holdings progressively from19/9/18 to 20/11/18 at prices ranging from $5.10 to $4.60. I am happy to show you evidence of these trades.

I currently have no THL and am happy with my decisions, even if you are not.

LF, thanks for your response.

My point is that TA posters too often post hindsight observations of when a stock did this or did that, and so it was a sell or a buy.

Would it not be more useful (and to establish a track history as well) to have sold your shares in THL and posted your death cross observation? Bugger those who accuse anyone of down ramping or whatsoever - they are posters of little consequence imo.

The way you wrote your piece is that :

1. There were plenty of warnings

2. TA practitioners saw those warnings and would have all sold out by inference?

It is grating to say the least to those who are holding or worse, bought in the last 6 months if it is indeed that obvious!

That's my point.

PS. I sold my THL on their profit warning at the AGM in Oct 2018. So I have no bones to grind re shareholding.