I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...
Yes, their business is cyclical ...and very capital intensive
Share price cyclicity dampened somewhat by them continuing to pay a 27 cent dividend no matter what
Promises of huge growth and hype also help the share price.
How capital intensive they are depends on your viewpoint. Their June 2018 accounts have a Total Assets/Revenue ratio of 1.38 ($341m revenue, $470m of assets). The higher this ratio, the more capital intensive. You only need to look at the retirement companies to see what being truely capital intensive looks like. For example SUM had a ratio of 20 in 2018 ($137m revenue, $2,766m of assets). Energy companies are also a lot more capital intensive despite paying substantial fees for transmission of electricity. For example Mercury energy had a ratio of 3.37 in 2018 ($1.8b revenue, $6.1b of assets).
I agree 100%...its just that there's been a very long upcycle which may have the makings of starting to finally reverse. A lot of people have got confused, (in my opinion) and have been valuing based on it being a growth company or even worse, a tech company.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-06-2019 at 12:28 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
thl must have been expecting great things for Road Bear buying all these vehicles -
• Approximately 80 new vehicle purchases initially intended for Road Bear in FY2019 will remain in our storage facility in Middlebury. This will reduce costs associated with holding this fleet because:
.... • The vehicles will not be registered until FY2020.
.... • Depreciation on these vehicles will be at a lower rate
Last edited by winner69; 03-06-2019 at 03:58 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
That Apollo in Aust share price still going down .....
......market cap now $70m
Would thl want to add to their own woes by making a play.
Apollo from memory are the second biggest operator here so Com Com could have a problem with any possible takeover.
Current year PE now just 3.9 and in this announcement they say Global market conditions have deteriorated in May https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201905...f15mqljrmj.pdf
Makes THL's PE look more than a little "interesting"
"Interesting" times for THL when they park up that much stock. As Balance famously said, downgrades usually comes in 3's...
THL trading on a current year PE of 19 assuming they can make their $25m profit...a higher PE than when they were growing strongly and everything in the sector smelt like Roses...Hmmmm
Last edited by Beagle; 03-06-2019 at 04:31 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I have both THL and ATL on watch lists.
However, I think it will be some time away before I consider buying either.Improvement in the sale of used camper vans looks a long way off for both companies.
Debt could also be a worry with ATL.
I agree 100%. The TA on both these says stay away. I'd want to see some TA encouragement before dipping my paws into either but I think ATL presents as an interesting opportunity and I note they manufacture RV's and operate in many countries so I would think some renationalization within their operations is pending.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Bookmarks