THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Have lost count - is this the third downgrade?

It’s getting a bit like the good old days when thl ‘disappointed’ the market time and time again most gave up on them.

Remember when those Aussies offered an outrageous price to take them over but share holders rejected it ....it was at about todays price I think.

[couta1]

I sold all of mine in April at a substantial profit since I bought in at 67c. The profit that I made cancelled the loss I made on CBL shares almost to the dollar. I always try take the view that it is best to judge your portfolio as a whole at not get over excited about the losses or gains on individual shares.

Very wise approach.

[Balance]

It’s getting a bit like the good old days when thl ‘disappointed’ the market time and time again most gave up on them.

Remember when those Aussies offered an outrageous price to take them over but share holders rejected it ....it was at about todays price I think.

Genuinely expected better from Rob Campbell but I guess it's a bit like Bill Falconer who was a bit of a hero when he first started taking over the Chairmanship of various companies - then it became a case of selling the hell out if you saw his name on a BOD.

I have to say I was grateful the Aussies (MFS?) were not successful in taking over THL at the time as it gave a second opportunity to ride the upside and recovery story.

Unfortunately, that story seems to be coming to an end (again).

[winner69]

Genuinely expected better from Rob Campbell but I guess it's a bit like Bill Falconer who was a bit of a hero when he first started taking over the Chairmanship of various companies - then it became a case of selling the hell out if you saw his name on a BOD.

I have to say I was grateful the Aussies (MFS?) were not successful in taking over THL at the time as it gave a second opportunity to ride the upside and recovery story.

Unfortunately, that story seems to be coming to an end (again).

Pays to reminisce a bit eh mate

Amazes me that the market in the main still loves thl ....must see heaps of potential I don't

[macduffy]

Having been burnt by a company called Trans Tours back in the last century I've since avoided capital-hungry tourism ventures and their depreciating assets!

[Beagle]

Pays to reminisce a bit eh mate

Amazes me that the market in the main still loves thl ....must see heaps of potential I don't

Does eh mate. Remember the days when THL was viewed as a purely cyclical tourism company on a PE of 10 ?
Heck that would put it on just 17 cps at $25m x 10 = $1.70 Love story for THL over ?

[winner69]

Even though a pretty big drop today share price yet to adjust/reflect for current earnings outlook and even worse still to be rerated down

Punters just love thl

[Beagle]

Can't see any reason in a low global growth environment the PE should be above the historical average, (ultra low interest rates notwithstanding)
Average PE of 16 on 17 cps which is $25m earnings gives just $2.72 assuming the narrative stays the same and doesn't deteriorate further.
Wonder how the TH2 thing they're throwing tens of millions at is going ?

[Lease]

THL operate in a very cyclical industry and US RV were peaked last year. So it will take a few years to recover. Just watch how many dividends they are going to pay. If they can maintain the current DPS, or even only pay 20C per share, it will support SP given the low interest rate.

Another thing to note is: normally NZ companies perform poorly once they expand to US. So need to pay attention on ATM.

[BlackPeter]

...

Another thing to note is: normally NZ companies perform poorly once they expand to US. So need to pay attention on ATM.

Good point, though XRO and FPH seem to do ok-ish ; For some others (e.g. ERD) the jury is still out.