THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

Oops, may have judged it prematurely.

Bring up a 2 year chart mate. The trend for holders is most definitely not your friend. Probably a relief rally. One should keep in mind that this company and its activities (and Air New Zealand for that matter) are directly in the path of the storm and its pure guesswork how severely its effects will be felt. Risk averse investors will look at the current year PE of about 18.5 and wonder what happy pills people were on today.

[winner69]

Bring up a 2 year chart mate. The trend for holders is most definitely not your friend. Probably a relief rally. One should keep in mind that this company and its activities (and Air New Zealand for that matter) are directly in the path of the storm and its pure guesswork how severely its effects will be felt. Risk averse investors will look at the current year PE of about 18.5 and wonder what happy pills people were on today.

..they had taken 4 UltraBlis

[winner69]

NZSA did a piece on thl and their outrageous dividends of late

A bit here:

At the end of the five years,THL asked its shareholders to contribute $50m towards an equity raise, which is remarkably close to the $48m cash paid out in unimputed fully taxable dividends. Had the company not paid the fully taxable component of the dividend, the increase in retained earnings would have made the equity raise unnecessary.

The sad part about this story is that while the shareholders received $52m in dividends, it was taxable. ........After the shareholders had stumped up $50m for the equity raise, they are left out of pocket by an amount approaching $17m compared to their situation had THL not paid the unimputed portion of the dividend,


Is worthwhile joint NZ Shareholders Association if you are not already a member. Doesn’t cost much.

[winner69]

Yes Beagle - a huge sigh of relief yesterday when thl said full year npat about $24m.

After reading and listening to the media and reading Sharetrader many punters thought the worse.

As the Pie Funds man said in The NZ Herald -History shows pandemics don't cause crashes

[BlackPeter]

Is worthwhile joint NZ Shareholders Association if you are not already a member. Doesn’t cost much.

I second that ... and it is easy to join: http://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/members.cfm

[Beagle]

..they had taken 4 UltraBlis

A bit here:

At the end of the five years,THL asked its shareholders to contribute $50m towards an equity raise, which is remarkably close to the $48m cash paid out in unimputed fully taxable dividends. Had the company not paid the fully taxable component of the dividend, the increase in retained earnings would have made the equity raise unnecessary.

The sad part about this story is that while the shareholders received $52m in dividends, it was taxable. ........After the shareholders had stumped up $50m for the equity raise, they are left out of pocket by an amount approaching $17m compared to their situation had THL not paid the unimputed portion of the dividend,
.

WOW...its quite clear who the real winner is from their well intentioned by obviously misguided dividend policy.

[winner69]

We could see thl at $3.50 tomorrow

Fear around virus impact on thl gone and markets happy as can be

[BlackPeter]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Peak THL share price in January was $3.45 (yep, this was the glorious times), i.e. 33% down to the peak January 2019 price and 39% under their consensus prediction and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70% in the last 12 months. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:2 against the analysts ...

[winner69]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Today the THL share price is at $2.90 (i.e. 44% down to the peak January 2019 price) and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70%. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:1 for the analysts ...

What’s consensus now BP

[Beagle]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Today the THL share price is at $2.90 (i.e. 44% down to the peak January 2019 price and 51% under their consensus prediction) and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70%. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:2 against the analysts ...

For sure as you drive around in your campervan it might be nice to have an app for suggestions to optimise your experience, (people are so hooked into social media and review sites they have probably mapped out their journey and most activities prior to departure), but it does beg the question of how many tens of millions will they throw down this very deep rat hole on this unproven experiment ? I think analysts fell into the classic trap of Rob Campbell has so much credibility his plan must be a really good one, even if they didn't understand it themselves !