THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

I'm sad to say, I think they face an incredibly tough time ahead and they may not survive this. Crucial to this will be how flexible their banks are and how supportive the Govt is.

[Playa]

I'm sad to say, I think they face an incredibly tough time ahead and they may not survive this. Crucial to this will be how flexible their banks are and how supportive the Govt is.

Long time reader for this forum and finally joined,this is my first post.
Many companies are sadly in the same boat,I hope they all survive but some obviously wont.I think if THL do survive and get to the other side of this,tourist numbers will be booming like never before,and profits will be soaring like never before.In saying that I wont be jumping in and taking the risk even at these levels.

[BlackPeter]

Long time reader for this forum and finally joined,this is my first post.
Many companies are sadly in the same boat,I hope they all survive but some obviously wont.I think if THL do survive and get to the other side of this,tourist numbers will be booming like never before,and profits will be soaring like never before.In saying that I wont be jumping in and taking the risk even at these levels.

Hi Playa (beach?), welcome to the forum. Mucho gusto.

Agree with your assessment of "jumping in" on THL - they might be cheap at the moment, but don't look like good value to me.

Interested though why you think that tourism will boom after this "experience"?

I'd expect a substantial number of carriers to bite the dust, which will probably significantly increase the cost of long haul travel. As well - unless this crisis is really short (which I think is unlikely), there will be lots of people with less money in their pockets (and jobless) - not really the people to rent a $400 a day camper van to tour some far away country ...

I would see a slow and gradual increase of tourist numbers - and hopefully not anymore up to amounts our country can't handle.

Actually not sure, whether there still will be a place for rent-a-camper-van companies which need not just to sell lots of used camper vans into a well saturated market to make their business plan work, but need to rely as well on a magic SW solution which I so far don't understand. I hope board and management does.

Time will tell. Personally I would use the longer set of barge poles to handle this stock.

How do you see the crisis play out?

[Playa]

Si,La Playa..the beach.I guess where many of us like to be.
It's hard to tell how it will play out,the last time the world saw something like this was The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 which lasted approx 20 months and just fizzled out on its own.Medicine has obviously advanced a lot since then.I think a vaccination is about 12 months away,there are many loops they have to jump through with testing which can't be rushed I hear. After a year of being told to stay home people will be jumping out of there skins to travel I think(I know I will be)Maybe about 3 months before the 12 months of vaccination testing could be the time to dip the toes back in the water when it comes to the market,but who knows for sure.?

[Scrunch]

Hi Playa (beach?), welcome to the forum. Mucho gusto.

Agree with your assessment of "jumping in" on THL - they might be cheap at the moment, but don't look like good value to me.

Interested though why you think that tourism will boom after this "experience"?

I'd expect a substantial number of carriers to bite the dust, which will probably significantly increase the cost of long haul travel. As well - unless this crisis is really short (which I think is unlikely), there will be lots of people with less money in their pockets (and jobless) - not really the people to rent a $400 a day camper van to tour some far away country ...

I would see a slow and gradual increase of tourist numbers - and hopefully not anymore up to amounts our country can't handle.

Actually not sure, whether there still will be a place for rent-a-camper-van companies which need not just to sell lots of used camper vans into a well saturated market to make their business plan work, but need to rely as well on a magic SW solution which I so far don't understand. I hope board and management does.

Time will tell. Personally I would use the longer set of barge poles to handle this stock.

How do you see the crisis play out?

While there will be lots of individuals with less cash, there will also be a lot with more than they typically had. All the expenditure that used to go on transport to work, lunches, dinners, clothes shopping (in stores, not online), activities like shows, concerts etc isn't happening. Many will have planned for an overseas holiday in the next 6 months but have ditched those plans.

Where is that saved money going to go. Some will reduce the mortgage and a few brave soles will invest it in the sharemarket. Another bunch will look to substitute international holidays with domestic one's. Say you planned to spend $20k on a holiday to the US or Europe and are now looking at a domestic one. Even if you reduced the budget to $10k, that can get you a lot and if a camper experience (and being mobile and away from city centres) looked a good idea, a $400/day price tag wouldn't be a major problem - and there will be discounts!!

I think its also a safe bet that there will be mass advertising, possibly paid for by the Government suggesting for Kiwi's to support kiwi tourism.

[iceman]

Si,La Playa..the beach.I guess where many of us like to be.
It's hard to tell how it will play out,the last time the world saw something like this was The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 which lasted approx 20 months and just fizzled out on its own.Medicine has obviously advanced a lot since then.I think a vaccination is about 12 months away,there are many loops they have to jump through with testing which can't be rushed I hear. After a year of being told to stay home people will be jumping out of there skins to travel I think(I know I will be)Maybe about 3 months before the 12 months of vaccination testing could be the time to dip the toes back in the water when it comes to the market,but who knows for sure.?

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151

[BlackPeter]

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151

Dónde estás? Estas en un barco? Espero que no sea un crucero?

De todos modos - disfruta de tu estancia pero mantente seguro!

[iceman]

Not a cruise ship, just my job. Not a caravan either so not relevant to this thread Sorry about the diversion !

[Playa]

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151

No,Gracias.Mucho Frio

[Leftfield]

THL unused camper vans stock as potential quarantine centre?? Read it here.

(Disc don't hold)