THL - Tourism Holdings

[dobby41]

talk around town says less than 50% chance of Apollo deal going ahead

Maybe the talk isn't always right?

[BlackPeter]

Maybe the talk isn't always right?

Maybe you don't understand likelihoods?

The chance for winning the big prize in the lotto is something like 1 : 7 million.

If you happen to be the lucky one who did, the likelihood was still 1 : 7 million.

Think about it.

[DarkHorse]

Leading Australian fund managers WAM are very bullish holders - excerpt from Oscar Oberg's comments on Livewire yesterday:

Oberg nominates Tourism Holdings (ASX: THL) – the largest motorhome rental company in New Zealand and the second largest in Australia. Oberg cites the company not raising capital since COVID-19 and a valuation materially lower than what it was before the pandemic as attractive features of the business, but there is one factor that trumps the lot.

“The real kicker, the real reason to own it, is the huge catalyst in the form of the merger with Apollo – which is the largest motorhome player Australia, and the second largest in New Zealand.”

Oberg notes that in putting the two together, “you get the largest rental company for motorhomes in the US and Canada, and a growing business in the UK.”
On Oberg’s estimates, the combined business in Australia and New Zealand commands about 60% market share, and there will be substantial synergies that will come through.
“So if you put it all together and do the work on the numbers and the synergies, the combined business is currently trading on a price-earnings multiple of seven times.
“THL used to trade at 15 times before COVID-19 started, and you could argue that the business together will be a much, much stronger business. So, you could argue that it should trade at a higher valuation. If it goes back to 15 times, well, there's over 100% upside there.”

[DarkHorse]

Both the NZCC and ACCC have granted approval for the merger with Apollo, so it only remains subject to the satisfaction of conditions including refinancing and requisite
approval from ATL shareholders and the Supreme Court of Queensland.
If anyone knows any substantive reason it's not likely to go ahead please do share.

I note that Craigs rates them "outperform" despite excluding potential merger benefits from their valuation.

[Southern Lad]

Stuff article today talking up the great effort to survive the COVID border closures, restructure the business and set themselves up for growth as tourists start to travel again

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130...ame-out-on-top

[Waltzing]

add to that story ... tourism in NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ourists-return

[sb9]

Back into this after long hiatus, used to be one of my fav stock. Let's see if it'll be equally rewarding this time around.

[sb9]

Solid update from Apollo across the ditch..

Oct 18 (Reuters) - Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) :

• FY23 GUIDANCE UPDATE
• RENTAL REVENUE EXCEEDED INTERNAL TARGETS IN Q1 FY23 IN EVERY REGION
• CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING RECORD LEVEL OF UNDERLYING NET PROFIT AFTER TAX (ON STANDALONE BASIS) IN FY23 OF ABOVE A$20 MILLION

[winner69]

See the Earnslaw is 110 years old today - that's cool

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/qu...S25KBLM3NKC7Y/

[Charlie]

Certainly hearing lots more foreign accents around The mount where I live as tourism opens up again. seems to be south Americans at the mo. Comes in waves .
AIR and THL both seem to be on the rise again.