THL - Tourism Holdings

[NZSilver]

I agree but in this case management has proven their capabilities over the last few years. Both very similar businesses and therefore there is good reason that it should be well integrated and synergies realised.

[winner69]

Good rise in share price today ….I’ll hold until mid 2024 ……fY23 would have been done and dusted ….H124 will look promising but after that just a hint that things not going to plan …and maybe the first downgrade.

But what the squiggly line on the chart does might determine something else …esp if punters get really really excited and the share price hits 6 bucks next year

Thats my plan

[Muse]

Good rise in share price today ….I’ll hold until mid 2024 ……fY23 would have been done and dusted ….H124 will look promising but after that just a hint that things not going to plan …and maybe the first downgrade.

But what the squiggly line on the chart does might determine something else …esp if punters get really really excited and the share price hits 6 bucks next year

Thats my plan

Sounds sensible.

There could be some catch-up/revenge travel going on now and that could last until the Fed crashes the party next year. Maybe a hangover.

But for now, party on.

[NZSilver]

Well current forecast from the company with higher metrics than 2019 gives you an indication on how far this could go. You would have to add a discount based on current risk free return but $5-6 would be fair. What have they got to get over the line for the apollo aquisition to be locked in? Confirmation will be seen very positively by the market

[buy_high_sell_lo]

Doing some calculations here they are expecting the merger to bring in earnings of 30m

Current THL market cap is $507m with 156m shares outstanding

After the merger there will be an additional 186m/ 3.680818 (conversion rate) = 50.5m shares

Therefore new PE over 20... seems like the markets gotten a little ahead of itself on this one.

[Southern Lad]

Doing some calculations here they are expecting the merger to bring in earnings of 30m.

Dig a little deeper:

• THL on a standalone basis expecting FY23 net profit after tax of above $30m, including one off merger transaction costs of $3.5m
• Apollo on a standalone basis expecting FY23 net profit after tax of above A$20m, excluding one off merger transaction costs of A$3.1m
• Merger synergy benefits expected to deliver a steady state EBIT uplift of $23 to $24m.

[NZSilver]

Well the market agrees, up over 20% in the last week or so when most of the market is in the red.

[NZSilver]

$3.75 by the end of the week?

[sb9]

$3.75 by the end of the week?

Would say more like $4, it all depends on commentary and update at tomorrow's ASM.

[winner69]

Would say more like $4, it all depends on commentary and update at tomorrow's ASM.

Yep, 4 bucks is def on the cards