THL - Tourism Holdings

[Lease]

[QUOTE=forest;510502]

but at current level.., it is not in risk yet.., maybe cross 2 dollar mark will see

[https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201720.pdf

Only 10,000, it's just like a drop of water. I wish he can increase by 1m shares.

[Beagle]

Dear golden mate....Currently its great. What happens tomorrow if NZ has a "foot and mouth" outbreak.....another huge earthquake............i.e. no tourism....no nothing....have you given thought to how much you want to make ???....be careful mate...cheers troy....

Agree 100%. The vast majority of business is tourism which is non essential travel. Its all very well to be holding good level's of forward bookings for the 2015 summer season but what if Ebola spreads at an alarming rate, how many of those non-essential bookings will actually be honoured and what about people's propensity to avoid unnecessary travel next year and after that if Ebola spreads widely.
Pays to have a widely diversified portfolio in my opinion.

[golden city]

there is always good and bad things happening.., beside the ebola.. i am also seeking recovery of american and euro economies,also a big potential market which if you are not chinese.., you never know the underlining potential of it.., it is huge.., the living standard and spending power has changed hugely.., which i just came back from china.., traveling and holidaying is part of there essentail life those days.

[golden city]

i am thinking lots chinese companies are interested of even taking over THL one day

[bunter]

Worth 3.23 by my model, FWIW - no allowance for the poor liquidity and general riskiness of the business - or the fall in exchange rate.

Isn't that good for thl? Very good?

1)Tend to increase the number of NZ tourists - eventually.
2) Make US (and less so, AUD) earnings worth more in NZD terms - immediately.

[golden city]

how you work out the number of $3.23.., it is a bold prediction

[golden city]

i am more thinking of forward pe of 15.., which $2 to $2.50 is more reasonable next year

[golden city]

hobbit december release will bring another high volume of tourist comming into nz from usa and asia

[bunter]

Estimate total dividends over the next 10 years, after tax, in today's dollars, using a discount rate of 5%.

If that figure is 50% of the current share price, then the share is 'fairly valued'.

It's very rough and no good for shares that pay low or no dividends - like Apple was.

[golden city]

nice dividend payout..