THL - Tourism Holdings

[bull....]

Traffic figures showed an increasing amount of Australians coming , We would assume this to continue as the cross rate stays weak. And those Aussies love there campervans I hear lol

[winner69]

Bull .... here's achart showing visitor numbers and the THL shareprice over the last few years

THL been an enigma eh ..... during the period in the early 00's when visitor numbers boomed the THL shareprice tanked .... The shareprice went up from 2002 to 2007 when visitor numbers were stillrising but I reckon it only went up because most shares went up in that time (and THL had some takeover action going on to push it in the latter part of that period) ..... and during 2008'2009 when visitor numbers have remained very resilience (only down 2%) the share price tanked again

Logic says visitor numbers should be one of the key drivers of THL shareprice .... but the chart suggests otherwise eh ... put it down to poor management or a stuffed business model I have no idea .... but over the last decade its been one long sad story hasn't it

Whether things have turned for the better is anybody's guess ... lets hope so ... the shareprice really can't go any lower

[bull....]

Hi Winner you show a good chart comparison but your chart does show 2 annomalies in that early 2000 and recently we had major market down turns which all shares declined.

I think if you remove the annomalies ( discrepancy or deviation from an established rule or trend ) the chart would probably reflect a similar trend comparison.

[winner69]

Long term then you would think that THL sales or profits should move with visitor numbers ..... a constant PE or the like would reflect a 'normalised' share price .... and then you are at the vagaries of market sentiment whether the price is higher or lower than the 'normalised figure'

I'll post a chart showing what I mean later .... it appears more visitors = less sales and profits if the past is anything to go by .... just as well the past is not a reliable indicator of the future eh

[bull....]

Probably would reflect what you say winner if the company was solely just rentals.

[flyingfox]

they have a really good cave, especially in summer visitor no. will be boost
But, their management is a problem, i've been there for 3 months

[bull....]

The rentals should in theory track vistor numbers so any increase in vistor numbers should be reflected in more rental sales.
So the companies figures may be on the low side if the next few mths show good vistor numbers.
CI Munro would be the wildcard as far as profits go.
Bad management can quickly destroy a good operation and it looks like Waitomo caves will be a very profitable operation if managed and marketed well going forward.
I presume your referring to Waitomo Flying fox.

[flyingfox]

yes bull..do they have any other caves?
i believe thl wil be good at least next few months, but for long term i'm not sure
you mean CI munro will be profitable?i dont think so

[bull....]

CI Munro i meant maybe the problem with there profit if they cant sort it out.

[bull....]

Here some RV companies in the US for anyone wants to see how they are performing or to just have a read.

Winnebago - WGO up about 400% from the Lows in March
Fleetwood
Monaco
Newmar