THL - Tourism Holdings

[bull....]

Prices showing positive trending behaviour minor resistance at 97c more at 1.32 then 1.50.

The fall from 1.32 to 72 was pretty much freefall so in theory should not be to much overhead resistance till then.

[Doyle]

I got on board with this one at 77 cents so am fairly happy with performance so far. Should be well placed to take advantage of the Rugby world Cup, I would have thought. But other than that seems little explanation for such a sharp price rise, tourism operators are being revalued, but I wouldn't have thought that would explain the near 40% increase over the last couple of months.

[bull....]

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

[Doyle]

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

Leisure and Tourism Index, didn't even know such a thing existed. Learn something new every day,

[Doyle]

Almost as if a result of your post BULL, the rally seems to have started a second leg this morning, tentative at this stage but might challenge $1 before the week is out.

[bull....]

Looking to go to the New Zealand Rugby World Cup in 2011? You better book soon, as supply is becoming scarce, according the Rohan Marx, General Manager of iMall Motorhomes:




“You need to book a Motorhome for the 2011 Rugby World Cup now or you run the risk of missing out” warns Rohan Marx, General Manager of Motorhome Rentals at iMall Motorhomes. “As ridiculous as it sounds we already have one fleet of nearly 600 Motorhomes of all shapes and sizes completely booked out and several smaller fleets quickly nearing 100% Occupancy for the Rugby World Cup”.


The schedule for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand is as follows:


•September 9th – October 2nd 2011 Pool Games
•October 8th – 23rd 2011 Quarter Finals and Finals

Pool games and Quarter finals are played in major centres in both the North and South island of New Zealand with the Semi finals and the final all being played in Auckland.




Marx continues:





“The even spread of locations hosting games and the scarcity of flights, hotels, and motels to, from and in many of these centres makes Motorhoming the perfect way to travel to and from games as well as see New Zealand along the way. Even though we have well over 4000 dedicated rental Motorhomes in New Zealand the Rugby World Cup will see a huge influx of overseas visitors from Rugby playing nations and many of these also happen to be strong Motorhoming Nationalities .




Larger 4 and 6 Berth vehicles will sell out first, so if you are travelling with 3 or more people you really do need to get in and book this side of Christmas 2009. The smaller 2 -3 berth vehicles or 2 Berths with Showers and toilets will sell out also but probably not until the middle or end of 2010. If you are thinking of booking a vehicle for the Rugby World Cup a couple or possibly even 6 months out from the Rugby World Cup – think again. The closest you’ll get is a car and a tent.



You don’t have to put 100% payment down on Campervans in New Zealand until much nearer the pick up date. So if you are worried about the New Zealand dollar being high at the moment and are waiting for it to possibly fall against the Euro or GBP this is not a valid strategy. The important thing is to book and secure a vehicle first. Most companies will require a deposit but the bulk of the rental won’t need to be paid until 3 – 6 months before the tournament. (start to middle of 2011) . Do not think that you will secure a cheap flight first before trying to secure a Motorhome or Campervan. It’s unlikely flights will fluctuate too much around the Rugby World Cup dates and even if they do this won’t be until very close to the actual dates of the tournament and all vehicles will be well and truly booked by then. This is a common mistake Motorhome renters are making with normal Summer periods so the Rugby World Cup will be even worse in terms of vehicle availability."


The asking rates on vehicles for the Rugby World Cup will also increase as the event approached and availability becomes scarce. Now is the best time book - check out Rugby World Cup

[bull....]

JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

[J R Ewing]

JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

I would look for some positive forecasts for this tourism season when they announce results to 31 December on 24th February. You could reasonably expect both yeilds and forward bookings to be tracking well ahead of forecast.

In all probability RWC year will be a vintage year for THL. But at the end of the cup final the shareholders will need to be able to look forward to economic returns from their assets over the core summer tourism seasons if the shareprice is going to justify $2.50 or so.

[winner69]

DB has NTA @ 1.37 ... SP currently .80 !!!

Review of past trends following recessions says that THL bounces back pretty darn quick with just one very sucky year, followed by pickup to near half-to-normal sales followed the next year by a return to the status quo. This is the time to bail as THL never seem to grow all that much following the two years it takes to get back on track.

You saying THL is a SELL then Belg

At 80 cents against a book value of $1.85 the market is already saying that THL will continue it value destruction into the future ... whats changed, THL has never made enought to cover its cost of capital anyway

Interesting comments about their past sales performance .... the chart below shows what has happened over the years .... one thing noticable is that they don't seem to recover much after big drops .... ie almost a long slow miserable decline (or flat at best) .... and one really can't blame recent global events for current performance

So it all comes down to what margin they make on the sales they do make .... Munros stuffed last year and if they fix that you would expect to see $10=$15m NPAT a base going forward (still value destruction territory) which would give some hope of a shareprice around $1.30-$1.50 sometime.

Hey nearly talked myself into buying .... but on principle i don't like investing in -

- value destroyers (ie not covering cost of capital)
- companies that can't seem to grow the revenues line when they should
- companies that seem to lurch from one disaster to another
- companies who don't seem to have any pricing power

But then again I could forget that and go for a short to medium term trade based on TA

You not selling Belg .... wouldn't want you to push down the price quitting your holding

[bull....]

Tourism Confidence Continues to Improve

Friday 11 December 2009 – For immediate release

The Tourism Industry Monitor shows that the confidence levels of tourism sector operators continue to improve.



Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce Bassett, said that overall, optimism in the industry was tracking in the right direction, although this wasn’t the case for all operators.



“Tourism is a very broad industry and we’re mindful that while business is good for many, others are still hurting. We’re not out of the woods yet, but the industry’s mood is heading in the right direction and there is optimism about the summer period.”



Just over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect demand to improve over the next three months and under one third (29%) expect demand to fall, with the balance expecting their situation to remain the same.



Lack of demand continues to be the main factor limiting business performance, cited by three quarters (75%) of businesses surveyed. Competition and discounting also continue to limit performance, cited by 38% of businesses.



The Tourism Industry Monitor is an industry wide initiative. It is designed to provide the industry with monthly information on the performance of the tourism sector, including the short-term outlook. It is led by the Ministry of Tourism, the Tourism Industry Association, Tourism New Zealand and the New Zealand Hotel Council.



For a copy of the Tourism Industry Monitor visit www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/tim.