TUA - Turners Auctions. A Case Study.

[Phaedrus]

The technical approach.

This chart shows 6 separate indicators. All parameters were selected such that no sell signal was generated by the low of March 2004. You can see that all 6 indicators triggered Sell signals over a short period of time in September 2004, not long after TUA had peaked.

In the following 3 years, there have been no buy signals triggered.

[Phaedrus]

This is an excellent example of the lack of correlation that can exist between company announcements and stock performance.

It shows the boundless optimism that some people can sustain in the face of unpleasant reality.

View it as an object lesson in the folly of buying into a downtrending stock and the inadvisability of "averaging down".

[winner69]

But Phaedrus .... you forget about those dividends

The lucky person who you noted as buying more and then more around $1.20 not that long ago scored a 8 cent special dividend (company can't be doing too bad if it had to give surplus cash back to shareholders ..... maybe thought it safer with them than letting trusted employees looking after it .... ha ha ha). So thats a pretty decent return on those shares eh.

Couldn't help smile with the statement emblazoned across the Turners website ....

..... NEVER PAY TOO MUCH!

[Snoopy]

This is an excellent example of the lack of correlation that can exist between company announcements and stock performance.

It shows the boundless optimism that some people can sustain in the face of unpleasant reality.

View it as an object lesson in the folly of buying into a downtrending stock and the inadvisability of "averaging down".

Change the time frame to 5 years or so and the 'averaging down' system has shown a rather different result.

Attachment 3081

I would hesitate to call TUA a long term investment, because I have only been invested for four years of my five year retrospective study period. Following my initial investment in the $1.70s, subsequent investments have been averaged out at a much more sensible $1.29. So despite doing everything wrong from a trading perspective, a major fraud within the company, the collapse of the the second hand car market amidst what is one of the worst global recessions in 60 years, how much money have I lost on TUA? None. I am actually showing a modest profit, ahead of the index over the period under study.

This is a textbook example of how investing in a beaten up company can lead to superior investment returns, no matter what the 'unpleasnt reality' seemed at the time.

Turning to my actual performance, while the subsequent acquisition prices have on average been good bets, the graph shows I would have done rather better if I had bought more shares when the price plunged to near its lows. I did buy some at 70c, but obviously I would have done better if I had bought more. Of course the graph never tells the full story. I had real doubts about the business model with the cost of Japanese car stock acquisition being so high and costs apparently increasing alarmingly. Nevertheless there was enough fat in the company, principally because of the very low company debt levels to get through this difficult time.

Overall assessment: Overall subsequent purchase price timing not very good (although I just explained why). Inital purchase of shares timing not very good. Yet thanks to averaging down TUA has been an above average performer for me.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

This is an excellent example of the lack of correlation that can exist between company announcements and stock performance.

It shows the boundless optimism that some people can sustain in the face of unpleasant reality.

View it as an object lesson in the folly of buying into a downtrending stock and the inadvisability of "averaging down".

Nothing seems to have changed from 11 years ago

[brother coy]

hahahha pharus is remenberts once ya riduculed mes for mys stocks tradings reports on telscom says i optimised its tos geta da best resultss hahahahhaa buts looka at ya graphs ya optimised da indicators to getta da best fit haaaaa ha ya sees sucker tella us da truth haaaaaaaahaaa there no magic a sucker

[duncan macgregor]

BRO, YOUS IS ONE COMPLICATED JOKER UNDERESTIMATED BY THE MASSES. Old PHAEDRUS can only do a chart after it has happened. After its happened he would hardly stick the lines in the wrong place now would he?. You on the otherhand BRO are a bit like me, not only with your spellin, but you come out with what is going to happen next week, which makes us much more intelligent than someone muckin about with chicken entrails.
SNOOPY is the one he quoted in the red ink, he like his name sake, not only goes down in flames, but pours petrol on the fire on the way down to put it out. PHAEDRUS gets on the bus at 25 to the hour and jumps off at five past. Your system is a bit like mine BRO the more you explain it the less they comprehend. Nice to see you back. MACDUNK

[winner69]

All Ears on the other channel is still predicting the demise of TUA .... sooner than later by what he says

[duncan macgregor]

All Ears on the other channel is still predicting the demise of TUA .... sooner than later by what he says

His latest post is well worth a read before it gets removed which has to happen. I would think it will be removed before it all hits the fan. Macdunk

[STRAT]

I suspect All ears has a personal axe to grind. Perhaps as his name suggests he once worked for Turners