OEL - (Otto) Multi based, Gambling Stock.

[Crypto Crude]

It will be a great year if Cinco strikes...
It will be a boring year if Cinco does not...

putting aside This,

there is Galoc,
...
what value has Galoc added over the years??? when share price dropped from 25c to 9c...
needs phase 2, just to replace decline of phase 1...
drilling to stay still?

Its time?


its been 7 years of the same old, and dumb moves in turkey and International portfolio etc...
Africa, does it look like more dumbars'e mistakes...
does it look more of old..
So, I wont even said it in full, but-->prolly...


Could be something, just been always cautious of this one... Like what bermuda said about CTP...
Could be something in it, but not one for me...
and heres why !

.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

over time,
things do/can change...

So a new year brings on new challenges...
A new challenge to reel in a beast...
hope it works...

.^sc

[gazprom1]

I am in for a few....free cashflow so downside risk is hedged. Upside is SC55 and phase II....almost a no brainer and I am a few bips to the upside already so no worries.

All the best to holders - going to be an interesting ride for a while.

Gaz

[Crypto Crude]

gazprom,
are you just BESBS play?

.^sc

[shasta]

Those two are interesting picks with potentially huge upside but they both haven't been derisked as yet. MAD (maverick) has what looks like large reserves but has been having problems increasing production as wells have very small output. So the risk is whether they can increase production.
BRU (Buru )on the other hand look like they have a large Oil find at Ungani but the size of the field could be anything between .5m barrels or in the upper case 20m barrels. They have a partner in Mitsubishi and probably have the largest shale gas acreage in the Canning Basin. NSE (New Standard Energy) is not far behind in Shale gas acreage but is not a producer. The risk with BRU is that the Ungani field is not as large as they think it is.

For unconventional and shale gas exposure my pick would be BPT (Beach) with great underlying cash flow from their Cooper Basin Oil and significant shale and unconventional acreage in the Cooper Basin. SXY (Senex) is another Cooper Basin shale play I favour along with DLS (Drillsearch) who already have a farmin partner.

AWE (Australian Worldwide) has large unconventional holdings in the Perth Basin and look cheap on any metrics. They just paid out a special dividend, so are cashed up and are ready to move forward after a disastrous drilling campaign in the Taranaki Basin in 2010.
Sorry about rambling on the OEL thread. OEL thread title sums it up. Elephant hunting in the Phillipines with BHP Billiton makes it a gambling stock if you want to invest for the upcoming drill this year..

Disc: Hold BRU BPT SXY

Cheers for that, i've previously held both BPT & SXY (in its former life as VPE), but cant say i've revisited them of late

Been casting my eye over WCL & had a look at NSE, after seeing Corporate was keen on it.

Will have a dig into BRU...

[gazprom1]

gazprom,
are you just BESBS play?

.^sc

SC,

Yeah in all probability that will be the way it goes....could be $$$$s to be made in the next few weeks.

The markets are difficult to say the least but I have been buying a few stocks the past 4 weeks. Mainly trying to buy stocks with perceived limited downside risks (free cashflow, low or no debt, no need to come to mkt to raise capital, etc) where SP has been beaten up because the overall mkt has been hammered not because of co or sector problems.

Gaz

[shasta]

OEL - CLARIFICATION ON COMMENTS IN RELEASE BY BIOPROSPECT LIMITED

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=574410

You would think BPO are getting close to receiving litigation by OEL, if they continue to make misleading statements!

2nd ann out today - UPDATE ON SERVICE CONTRACT 55 DRILLING PREPARATIONS

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=574413

Otto Energy Ltd (ASX:OEL) advises that it has received confirmation from farm-in partner, BHP Billiton, that it has issued a termination notice for the Transocean Deepwater Expedition rig due to the rig not passing key acceptance tests.

BHP Billiton has advised that it is progressing preparations to commence drilling the Cinco well and will provide an update on rig status when available.

Service Contract 55 is currently in Sub-Phase 4 which requires the drilling of the Cinco-1 deepwater well by 5 August 2012. Otto advises that at this point the date for commencement of drilling of the Cinco well is yet to be confirmed and will continue to update shareholders as information becomes available.

Market doesn't like this "uncertainty", & OEL dropped from 9.6c to 8.8c on modest volume

I'm fairly confident that the date/terms for drilling could be extended, but the risk is that BHP walks away

[jdg]

here's another confirmation of what i really like about OEL. the BHP/rig problem made me curse more than a little (in fact i think i invented several new swear words), but the story remains the same. this is hands-down my favorite stock. i am a little surprise that it's not more highly favoured by follk here. in fact, even on that other site, which isn't shy of rampers, it is a little discussed company. oh well, i'm in boots and all.
this is with thanks to cara who posted it on that other site.


OTTO ENERGY LTD
Downside Limited, Upside Unlimited
Otto Energy Limited (“Otto”, “OEL”, “Company”) had another good quarter in
terms of cashflow. The Company generated $10.4m in cash for the quarter,
finishing 2011 with $38.7m in cash.
Galoc – focussed on extending production
We visited the FPSO while it was in dry dock in the Keppel shipyards in
Singapore undergoing the turret installation. The turret installation has been
designed to allow the FPSO to remain in field in most weather conditions
which improves production consistency and should allow Otto to seek
finance options for further expansion of the field. Expansion could come
from additional wells in the Galoc field, drilling of the Galoc North prospect
and/or tying in stranded fields. Expanding the Galoc field will go further to
underpin Otto’s operations and cashflow while it explores its other assets.
Production for the quarter was just 104,931 net barrels (196,490 net barrels
in the September quarter) as a result of the FPSO being taken out of field.
Given the progress to date, we would expect that Phase II FID will be a
matter of course. Otto expects Phase II to add at least 3mmbbl to 2P
reserves but the conversion of current 2C resource could see 4.5mmbbl of
2P reserves.
Exploration upside is enormous
We have a valuation for Otto of 27cps. Of this value, 9cps is made up of
cash (3cps) and Galoc (6cps). The remainder of our valuation is exploration
of 19cps (less admin costs).
Our exploration value of 19cps is based on the general metric of an
NPV/unit multiple applied to prospective recoverable resource. This value is
then risked to reflect a probability of success. We have only included the
two most mature targets in SC55 (Cinco – 2.1Tcf and 74mmbbls, Hawkeye -
~200mmbbl) and the SC69 prospective resource (~290mmbbls) in our
exploration value.
We have a risked value of 7cps for the Cinco prospect. The potential upside
if the well is successful is an unrisked 50cps. However, a successful well
would de-risk (to a certain extent) the other prospects on the permit which
have a risked value of 47cps and an unrisked value of 468cps. None of
which is currently included in our valuation or price target.
Buy – strong foundation with significant upside
Otto is in a unique position where it has a strong production and cash
position that underpins its share price but also has significant leverage to
exploration success.
Our price target of $0.18 is a pre-spud price target. Success at Cinco could
add $0.43 based on the Cinco prospect and another $0.47 if the other
prospects on SC55 are re-rated. This is a potential $1 share price if Cinco
is successful but with the bonus of limited downside because the current
share price of $0.10 is underpinned by cash and production.

[drillfix]

Hi jdg,

Yes its been a while since I have been in OEL, in fact, quite a while back I was in at 30c something in the day for a while.

Another fella I know also tells me about Otto, but having it seen it drop and drop and drop, the stock seems to have a break and then it gets hammered back down again.

I have also traded a couple of times but at present, the daily EMA line up is good and has strong RSI and money flow moving upward.

Just wondering how long it will remain like this for, as in, Otto seem to be doing plenty but it always seems there is something that is going to happen and what I dont understand is What is Actually Happening right now?

Sorry for such stupid questions but I dont follow the story no longer but skim through stuff.

[gazprom1]

Hi jdg,

I am with you jdg in believing OEL is a great investment. I have been hoping to buy some more around that 9 cent level but buyers always step in around 9.3 cents. Now they have upped their percentage in Galoc and are now the operator, it is all good for them. They are going to chew through that cash pile in the current quarter as Galoc will remain offline and they are spending cash.

DF - what is happenning? Well, we are waiting for confirmation from BHP of the rig to drill Cinco (time is tight) - SP should IMHO jump on positive news. Phase II of Galoc and Galoc North should all progress forward during the remainder of this year. The FPSO is due back at the field at the end of the quarter from memory so production will come back online.

Exciting times ahead I hope.

Gaz