OEL - (Otto) Multi based, Gambling Stock.

**shasta** · 24-07-2009, 10:35 PM

Originally Posted by tricha

OEL is like ADY unfortunately Shasta, they couldn't run a pissup in a brewery.

Thats a tad unfair, OEL has an indirect interest via GPC.

GPC seem to be a bunch of amateurs who should not be the operators.

Step up NDO?

**tricha** · 24-07-2009, 10:41 PM

Originally Posted by shasta

Thats a tad unfair, OEL has an indirect interest via GPC.

GPC seem to be a bunch of amateurs who should not be the operators.

Step up NDO?

tad unfair, hmm, I'd say it's the truth. Who's fault is it they are in bed with a bunch of half wits.

**shasta** · 24-07-2009, 10:44 PM

Originally Posted by tricha

tad unfair, hmm, I'd say it's the truth. Who's fault is it they are in bed with a bunch of half wits.

Remember Alex Parks got his marching orders, although again a bit harsh, he alone isn't responsible for OEL's underperformance.

I'm tracking the operators of Santa Rosa, unless it's filled to spill & a monster find, i'll be out & will look for another punt...

Corporate · 28-07-2009, 02:33 PM

Santa Rosa is dry!

**shasta** · 28-07-2009, 03:59 PM

Originally Posted by Corporate

Santa Rosa is dry!

Here's the bad news...:mad:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=454269

I saw the ann & wanted out @ 7.4c

Had to go out & missed getting it, f*** it

(esp looking at EDE @ 5.4c before the ann

)

Where to from here?

There is 2x the buy depth at present, suggesting 6.6 - 6.7c is the bottom.

Negatives:

1. Gazzata-1 (Italy) - plugged & abandoned - expensive lesson
2. Santa Rosa - plugged & abandoned - cheap drill & thrill
3. Galoc field not in production - very bad
4. No cashflows coming in (i hope OEL have insurance?)
5. Recent CEO change
6. No more drilling program
7. Farm out agreement with BHP lapsed

Positives:

1. Galoc should be up & running again within a week (weather permitting)
2. Mgmt can concentrate on Phillipines & Turkey
3. Gas sales on the horizon
4. Farm outs still in discussions
5. Calauit field still to come online (2010?)
6. Still explosive potential in OEL's deep water Phillipine permits
7. OEL still looks far to cheap IMO.

Hopefully this quarterly will paint a realistic picture & not cover up all the mistakes made, i'm not selling out of OEL - it's still a potential cash cow.

With the July - Sept quarter, just about a 1/3 gone, lets assume it takes another 2 weeks to get Galoc up & running... :o

For this quarter we could still generate 6 weeks revenue.

Lets take the worst case scenerios...

OEL net 2,000 bopd (down from ~3,000 bopd)

Brent Price (less discount) = $US60/bbl

AUS/USD = .83 (equates to $A72/bbl)

2,000 bopd x 42 days = 84,000bopd x $A72 = ~$A6m

Not bad for a worse case scenerio!

**boysy** · 28-07-2009, 06:24 PM

I think every body expected santa rosa to be dry i took a small punt yesterday and bought a small parcel. Even with the bad news filtering through i belive there is plenty of upside. This stock has had some rough times and is not yet out of them but as you point out shasta there are just as many positives as there are negatives. With a MC of under A$70 million ive hopped on board for the ride.

**shasta** · 28-07-2009, 06:58 PM

Originally Posted by boysy

I think every body expected santa rosa to be dry i took a small punt yesterday and bought a small parcel. Even with the bad news filtering through i belive there is plenty of upside. This stock has had some rough times and is not yet out of them but as you point out shasta there are just as many positives as there are negatives. With a MC of under A$70 million ive hopped on board for the ride.

Problem being, OEL has alot to like, yet continues to stumble from one disaster to another.

The quarterly will tell us what cash they have, if they can survive until Galoc is up & running (soonish), then there may be light at the end of the tunnel & this time, NOT a train

Surely the market has factored in every possible failure at these levels!

**shasta** · 31-07-2009, 11:13 PM

Originally Posted by shasta

Problem being, OEL has alot to like, yet continues to stumble from one disaster to another.

The quarterly will tell us what cash they have, if they can survive until Galoc is up & running (soonish), then there may be light at the end of the tunnel & this time, NOT a train

Surely the market has factored in every possible failure at these levels!

OEL - Quarterly Activities & Cashflow reports

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=455108

Cash on hand = ~$13m

The Otto story hangs on it's Galoc production, seemingly all the deep water Phillipine permits won't get an acceptable farm in partner until economic conditions improve.

Smart really no use handing these over for peanuts...

During the quarter Galoc was flowing at 12,000 bopd (net OEL~2200)

Just gotta hope, no more issues or weather delays this quarter!