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  1. #651
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    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    good little pop this mornig would be good if it could breach the 12 cent mark today hopefully with a bit of good news and a stable oil price the sp can extend gains. Am expecting news any day now round the galoc reserve reestimates from nido. Then there is turkey we should be due a report by about now .
    boysy, has there been any other word around the reserves estimate since NDO's statement contradicting OEL's several months ago? from memory NDO said they would have it by Feb.

    has there been anything said about it since?

    (would love to see it hit .12 today).

    -j

  2. #652
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    no mention of time frames other than early in the 1st quarter of 2010 they started in sep 2009 should be due any time now based on those figures. Wonder how the siesmic is going in sc 55 and hopefully farmout talks progressing in sc 51 a well needed by dec 2010 that could be an interesting play add into that turkey where they are going to have 2 siesmic teams on the go at once the operator must be rather confident of further finds thats for sure
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  3. #653
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    cheers, boysy. it can't be too far away - and let's hope it comes back with a juicy upgrade.
    nice to see a 12c finish on pretty good volumes.

    -j

  4. #654
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    yep cant be far away and we should have the turkey on the go by the end of the month. Good finish on 11.5 and with a few buyers starting to step up and offer a bit more this has to be good news. Would be good to get that reserve reassement out of the way and hopefully start a bit more excitement about galoc phase #2 as an upgrade would be a major step towards an investment decision.Galoc still pumping away , siesmic in sc 55, siesmic in our turkey licence things are all go at otto hopefully we can hear a bit of an update about the farm out of sc51 even just to confirm if any one is sitting round the bargaining table.
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  5. #655
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    OEL is finding resistance at 12 cents and without some sort of positive announcement this will continue. Investors like companies that under promise and over deliver.
    Otto looks to have a good management team so I can't imagine them sitting on their hands.

  6. #656
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    yep we should be due for news any day thats for sure plenty of shares changing hands still though
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  7. #657
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    just going over the march presentation it seems as though up to 23 wells are to be drilled this year in turkey if phase #2 3 and 4 get the go ahead. The operators seems like they are halfway through phase #2 i guess the decision to go further is dependent apon the results of the current deeper well currently being drilled. One would think if they keep up a high ht rate and those wells come through much the plant will have to be upgraded to accomodate the excess the new capacity. Wonder what sort of production rate they would get if the wells maintain a high level of success. Currently targeting 10-14 mmcf a day perhaps double or more as this rate was for 8-10 modest gas finds so far. It certainly does look as though turkey could very well become the major breadwinner along with galoc by this time next year. Thoughs ?
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  8. #658
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    The latest presentation indicates a seven well drilling program in Turkey for phase two, the rest of the program being contingent-one would assume-on the success of phase two.

    The Galoc development in the presentation is typically non-committal with wording such as
    "likely 1-2 new wells" and "Possible phase 2 start up cy2011."

    The presentation, to a greater degree, promotes the Philippines acreage and prospects, but this is all "pie in the sky" unless they get a definite farm in partner.
    Like most presentations everything is contingent on everything else.

    More information from the company on Turkey must surely be imminent.
    Last edited by Rabbi; 12-03-2010 at 02:31 PM.

  9. #659
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    very interesting to see how the 2 recent/ current siesmic programs overlap. There would be no point in bhp asking for siesmic over the hawke eye prospect as it was done 3 months previously. Looks as though there are 4 major plays that bhp are interested in sc 55.
    the targets

    first siesmic - 600 km over the hawke eye prospect and B1
    second siesmic - 1800 km over - B1 , A4 , A3

    the relative sizes of each prospect off ottos own estimates

    Hawke eye - 114 mmbl - 1743 mmbl
    B1 - 372 mmbl - 5420 mmbl
    A4 - no info available
    A3 - 540 mmbl - 9181 mmbl

    From these figures its clear to see how big some of these targets are are the potential of each. The 1800 km siesmic should be completed by this time next month clearly it will take time to interperate this but hopefully we can get a bit of new info from the 600 off km siesmic shot in dec/jan.

    Clearly these targets cos will be rather low one would thnk but the share size of each and possible oil in place will be enough to generate excitement should bhp elect to farm in and drill one or two prospects.

    We can work out some rough conservative calculations

    500 mmbl * 10% cos * npv $10 per barrel * 35%(oel post farmout) * 40% recover factor

    that gives a npv of around 70 odd million NPV and thats a 500 mmbl target so will be interesting if the siesmic can help us determine the size of the targets and POS. Time will tell but it is an interesting time ahead then add into that the other assets in the pines and hopefully a turkey and possibly phase 3 and 4 get the go ahead.
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  10. #660
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    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    very interesting to see how the 2 recent/ current siesmic programs overlap. There would be no point in bhp asking for siesmic over the hawke eye prospect as it was done 3 months previously. Looks as though there are 4 major plays that bhp are interested in sc 55.
    the targets

    first siesmic - 600 km over the hawke eye prospect and B1
    second siesmic - 1800 km over - B1 , A4 , A3

    the relative sizes of each prospect off ottos own estimates

    Hawke eye - 114 mmbl - 1743 mmbl
    B1 - 372 mmbl - 5420 mmbl
    A4 - no info available
    A3 - 540 mmbl - 9181 mmbl

    From these figures its clear to see how big some of these targets are are the potential of each. The 1800 km siesmic should be completed by this time next month clearly it will take time to interperate this but hopefully we can get a bit of new info from the 600 off km siesmic shot in dec/jan.

    Clearly these targets cos will be rather low one would thnk but the share size of each and possible oil in place will be enough to generate excitement should bhp elect to farm in and drill one or two prospects.

    We can work out some rough conservative calculations

    500 mmbl * 10% cos * npv $10 per barrel * 35%(oel post farmout) * 40% recover factor

    that gives a npv of around 70 odd million NPV and thats a 500 mmbl target so will be interesting if the siesmic can help us determine the size of the targets and POS. Time will tell but it is an interesting time ahead then add into that the other assets in the pines and hopefully a turkey and possibly phase 3 and 4 get the go ahead.
    As these are deep water permits, the costs of drilling them would be huge, maybe $US20-30m per well.

    OEL will definitely need a "wealthy friend" to farm into these permits & pay the costs.

    Upside for OEL is in any farm out agreement, ie the likes of BHP pays 100% of costs of 1st well for 70% working interest, & an agreement to fund a 2nd well, if the 1st is a discovery.

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