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  1. #1
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    Default SPN - South Port

    I was interested to see a total of 1,434,776 SPN shares trade yesterday (representing around 5.4% of total shares on issue).

    After a squiz through the Annual Report I am guessing that the seller was Tasman Pacific Insurance Ltd. Alternatively, perhaps the Southland Regional Council has been encouraged to reduce their holding in an effort to improve liquidity. I am mighty curious as to who the buyer(s) were though - obviously someone feels there is value in SPN at $1-25.

    I confess to being party to one of the 5 trades yesterday (on the buy side). I thought that there should have been some price weakness after they went ex-div earlier in the week, hence the presence of my cheeky $1-15 bid. After seeing the volume trades go through yesterday I didn't want to miss the boat on this one, so I bit the bullet and increased my bid by 10cps. There is a first for everything!

    Roll on next week and the SSH notice(s).

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK
    Regards

  2. #2
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    Default

    JAMP, If the buyers thought that there was value at $1-25 then surely the sellers thought the opposite. macdunk

  3. #3
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    Default

    I was wondering whether anyone would point this out.

    As per my previous post, I am guessing (pin the tail on the donkey style) that there was only the one seller. This being the case, then there were 5 buyers (including me) who pick that at this price level SPN have something to offer going forward.

    Sooner or later, a state of equilibrium will return to the demand vs supply for shipping globally. When this time comes (2006?), there will be a number of hibernating coastal service links around New Zealand that will spring back into life again. This will result in an increased number of visits to South Port as shipping lines look to close the gaps that presently exist in their service schedule.

    The investment in infrastructure was made before the shipping lines cut back their service schedule. Essentially all that is required by South Port is an investment in personnel when the time comes.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK

  4. #4
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    Default

    the way the world price of coal is rising southport could become an export port for southland coal[ohai] orbarged west coast coal.

  5. #5
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    Default

    "Cheeky bid $1.15 bid"
    If you ask me your $1.15 bid is generous.I have watched this stock since its listing and have never been tempted to buy. why
    Too small(for a port)
    Very average management
    Its too easy for southlands exporters to truck/rail there products north.
    The only reason I can see to buy is for southlanders wanting a local income stock.
    LPC looks a better buy to me(as long as Toll rail can get the coal over to them!)
    I may be tempted to buy if the sp drops to 75c.
    Anyway good luck to those of you who can see value in SPN.


  6. #6
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    Default

    quote:Its too easy for southlands exporters to truck/rail there products north.
    You are 100% correct.

    But doesn't the same potential scenario exist for practically every exporter in the country? There is always going to be the option of using road/rail to gain access to another port. Of course should our exchange rate weaken (and the price of oil remain at or near present levels) I would expect freight rates to go through the roof. Then the nearest port option becomes significantly more attractive...parochial province factors excluded.

    Prior to the rationalisation of the shipping service, Southland exporters were beginning to embrace the efficiencies they could achieve out of South Port. This was reflected in the growth of containerised cargo crossing the wharves. To my mind there is no reason to think that they won't be able to grow the business again when external demand pressures for shipping is met.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK


  7. #7
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    JAMP, SPN are going nowhere in the short term. Why people buy into shares like this and watch their money stagnate is beyond me. Then you might know something that i dont know which will prove me wrong. Good luck macdunk

  8. #8
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    Default

    Not quite right Macdunk. In the short term, SPN is going [u]down</u>. It is in the long term that it is going nowhere - the current price is pretty much where SPN was over 10 years ago.

    This stock could be traded using a moving average such as a 400 day sma, but it is not really a good trading candidate either.


  9. #9
    Member glennj's Avatar
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    Default

    Plynch your assertion that it is too easy for SPN's customers to truck/rail their product north doesn't stack up. NZAS imports & exports make up over half the cargoes and they would not use another port. With the forest products which are the 2nd largest cargoes, especially the high volume lower value ones such as logs and woodchips it would not make economic sense to change ports as added freight costs would remove profitability.
    Petroleum, fertiliser etc could move but it is unlikely because of the dedicated facilities &
    freight cost implications.

  10. #10
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    Default

    quote:Originally posted by JAMP

    I was interested to see a total of 1,434,776 SPN shares trade yesterday (representing around 5.4% of total shares on issue).

    After a squiz through the Annual Report I am guessing that the seller was Tasman Pacific Insurance Ltd.
    Well, it appears that your guess was 100% correct!

    If only you could guess share prices as accurately...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

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