Ebos Limited EBO

[percy]

Hi percy

Seems you and I are the only ones at all concerned that Pharmac may put a small spoke in EBO's wheel. On the other hand, perhaps the Tower man has it right and the NZ market is getting a bit over exuberant!

EBO is one of my longest held stocks - with an average cost of under $2.50 - and I'd be more inclined to add than to sell. But not at current prices.

Does appear you and I are the only ones concerned.Supplying rubber gloves and dressings,to pacemakers,coronary stents etc,is all competition to EBO.I have held since 1990 or 1991.Market cap at the time was about $2.5mil and Jamie Maddren was chairman.As I said earlier, every time I have sold a few the SP goes up.!! They have overcome all challenges in the past.
I too feel the market is exuberant.I have been taking a bit off the top for a few months now,spreading myself even further. All ships float on rising tide.!!!!
Trouble is a lot of stocks,including EBO can be very thinly traded,and hard to get out if you need to.
The Kiwi saver money,plus a lot of other money is making into the market pushing good companies like EBO's SP up even higher,so one must stay fully invested.!!! Dangerous?

[percy]

Fantastic result.
Today is the day, that yesterday we worried about,and all is well.!!!!

[winner69]

Wouldn't say fantastic percy .... just solid and now we know what to expectfor the full year

Healthcare going nowehere on its razor thin margins and there is some risks associated with the future but they looking at how best to mitigate those risks - so lets say NPAT of say $25m-$27m this year. About the same as last year .... just as well bought Masterpet eh

Animal looks like it is heading to making $12m-$14m NPAT this year

They have this fan dangled Corporate division and that is going to eat up $9m-$11m

So all up lets say $28m to $32m for the year

At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted.

They need to buy something else Percy before I'll be interested again

[winner69]

The day after the ann of Masterpet acquisition EBO shareprice was 650 meaning market cap has increased by $130m since

Animal likely to make $12m odd this year - reduce to say $8m as share of corporate costs (interest) and thats $8m

The way I look at my trade is that I have got 15-16 years Animal Div earnings in just over a year and seeing I wasn't really interested the Health Div I reckon that is a good deal

[percy]

Wouldn't say fantastic percy .... just solid and now we know what to expectfor the full year

Healthcare going nowehere on its razor thin margins and there is some risks associated with the future but they looking at how best to mitigate those risks - so lets say NPAT of say $25m-$27m this year. About the same as last year .... just as well bought Masterpet eh

Animal looks like it is heading to making $12m-$14m NPAT this year

They have this fan dangled Corporate division and that is going to eat up $9m-$11m

So all up lets say $28m to $32m for the year

At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted.

They need to buy something else Percy before I'll be interested again

EBO has in the past traded [approx] on a PE as low as 13 and a high of 16.The healthcare has risks in NZ and is a light weight in Aussie,and needs to bulk up there.
Growth will have to come from animals.
I recently sold a few more as I share your concerns.Only trouble is they always go up after I have sold some.

[winner69]

At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted

Haven't sold yet percy ..... the price just keeps going up .... and up .... unbelievable

10 bucks by easter at this rate

[percy]

EBO has in the past traded [approx] on a PE as low as 13 and a high of 16.The healthcare has risks in NZ and is a light weight in Aussie,and needs to bulk up there.
Growth will have to come from animals.
I recently sold a few more as I share your concerns.Only trouble is they always go up after I have sold some.

Somethings never change.Sold a third of my holding,then up they go.
Why? I certainly don't know.

[glennj]

I thought the 19th Feb result was pretty good. This is one management team that tends to deliver. Am a bit surprised you sold percy!
Various amalgamated parcels I've bought as of today have an IRR of 117.7%
It's been a good ride so far and I'll probably reinvest the div taking advantage of the 2.5% discount.
The ratios post latest results look good to me and don't put them in to over valued territory yet!

[percy]

I thought the 19th Feb result was pretty good. This is one management team that tends to deliver. Am a bit surprised you sold percy!
Various amalgamated parcels I've bought as of today have an IRR of 117.7%
It's been a good ride so far and I'll probably reinvest the div taking advantage of the 2.5% discount.
The ratios post latest results look good to me and don't put them in to over valued territory yet!

Market cap today is $486 mil.When I first brought in market cap was $2.5mil.So has been a great ride.I just get nervous at times.Over the years I have made and lost a lot in the markets,so I suppose I am being over careful.As you point out the company has always delivered.

[winner69]

Percy ... what the heck .... EBO hits another all time high at 933 (and I was only joking abouyt 10 bucks by easter)

Still haven't sold out yet even though price is getting stupid on fundamnetals .... might have come close when it dipped under 9 bucks the other day but I was away at the time ... so maybe good luck keeps me in .... for now .... up up and away .... like a bunch of balloons

Here's a little picture of recent action .... ipad apps can be rather addictive