Things like MLN like normal stocks can actually be assessed as ‘cheap’ / ‘expensive’ using the Z-score - just like people use PE ratios to assess (normal) stocks
Z-score represents how far away the current premium/discount is from its average premium/discount over a selected time period.
The distance is measured in standard deviations and the sign indicates the direction away from the mean.MLN and KFL on this measure (on a 12 month time frame) are quite ‘expensive’
In big markets there’s a whole industry that study and invests in these sort of funds.
If MLN and KFL are expensive then BRM is just super duper expensive ...Cheapest or I should say least expensive is KFL
I am also very pleasantly surprised with this new development of such huge premiums to NAV ...Dont know will they last ...what u think buddy ?
Which is why I never buy on market, but take advantage of DRP and warrants (when the exercise price is at a significant discount to market price -which is almost always).
Originally Posted by winner69
MLN and KFL on this measure (on a 12 month time frame) are quite ‘expensive’
Which is why I never buy on market, but take advantage of DRP and warrants (when the exercise price is at a significant discount to market price -which is almost always).
Did u ever consider the opportunity cost of missing out on super inflated SP ? I understand U have a small holding which is growing nicely with DRP ( Even after 3% discount to 5 day average of SP is always over NAV as DRP issued shares these days ) plus u get FOC warrants which u subscribe to fully ...that just ensures your original holding is not getting diluted , no other benefit . What growth u seeing now is all because of SP trading much over NAV not that fund is doing that much special . But I do understand it gains for u at the moment . They call it Total Shareholder Returns .
But if it reverts to its more long term SP pattern of 2-5 cents discount to NAV then almost 20% gains will go unless overall markets go up 20% thus boosting the NAV .
Thats why I am confused as a long term holder to sell into this bubble or keep holding !!!
But if it reverts to its more long term SP pattern of 2-5 cents discount to NAV then almost 20% gains will go unless overall markets go up 20% thus boosting the NAV .
That is why I am confused as a long term holder to sell into this bubble or keep holding !!!
The thing is, I do consider my Fisher trio to be long term holdings. So if that happens, I will just sit and ride it out. Because at some point things will change yet again and the SP will recover.
I'm not clever or brave enough to try to play the "time the market" game.
The thing is, I do consider my Fisher trio to be long term holdings. So if that happens, I will just sit and ride it out. Because at some point things will change yet again and the SP will recover.
I'm not clever or brave enough to try to play the "time the market" game.
As a holder since 2010 I can tell from experience that this kind of premium never happened before ..though I have seen 20 cents discount to NAV more commonly just before warrants exercise time . Thats why me more confused if this is special " Covid " phenomena or will keep repeating as u thinking to wait out till this type premium comes again .
But me as well is really loving this recent market attraction to Fisher Funds trio
As a holder since 2010 I can tell from experience that this kind of premium never happened before ..though I have seen 20 cents discount to NAV more commonly just before warrants exercise time . Thats why me more confused if this is special " Covid " phenomena or will keep repeating as u thinking to wait out till this type premium comes again .
But me as well is really loving this recent market attraction to Fisher Funds trio
Over time MLN KFL etc have in the main traded at a discount to NAV - the discount was seen as the NPV of future management fees etc.
Its only recently that they have consistently traded a premium. I think mainly because they are seen as just another stock (ticker code and all) and one that pays a decent dividend to boot in these low interest rate times. And for those who have come on bard over the last year (I would hazard a guess many have) its been a pretty lucrative investment eh
Doesn't seem to make much sense for oldies but these are weird times.
Question you ask is this the new norm ....and they will continue to trade at a premium to NAV forever.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Naving is forever. But the premium isn't going to go away anytime soon. When money is cheap, every share is cheap.
The premium here is a little different to a high PE though. You could sell your marlin shares and divide the proceeds proportionally through their portfolio and even up with about 30% more shares in the components than before, minus whatever your trading costs are.
You'd have to think the managers are worth paying a 30% up front fee to buy at the moment.
Over time MLN KFL etc have in the main traded at a discount to NAV - the discount was seen as the NPV of future management fees etc.
Its only recently that they have consistently traded a premium. I think mainly because they are seen as just another stock (ticker code and all) and one that pays a decent dividend to boot in these low interest rate times. And for those who have come on bard over the last year (I would hazard a guess many have) its been a pretty lucrative investment eh
Doesn't seem to make much sense for oldies but these are weird times.
Question you ask is this the new norm ....and they will continue to trade at a premium to NAV forever.
Need yours and other learned and seasoned investors opinion about this important issue being faced by me and many like me ...Shall we switch from such pricy funds ( Z score basis ) or keep riding till it collapses ...What goes up must come down may happen ...Memory of CEN and MEL at lofty levels in Jan still fresh
As MFD said sell funds and DIY portfolio and get a 30% head start ...
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