sharetrader
Page 24 of 26 FirstFirst ... 1420212223242526 LastLast
Results 461 to 480 of 510

Thread: Marlin

  1. #461
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    18,338

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by FatTed View Post
    Beagle what do you think a fair price would be for BRM, MLN and KFL warrants?

    I managed to buy some BRM below NTA so happy with that.
    As I am sure you can appreciate fair value depends upon what the NTA is. I value them every week when the NTA is announced.
    Its getting much harder to put a fair value on Marlin and Barramundi warrants because its become apparent that the market for some months now has been prepared to pay a premium for entry into the shares of these funds based on the very substantial outperformance these have enjoyed relative to their respective index's. The persistence and size of the premium is not something I have seen before so the market appears to be saying the management expertise behind these funds is worth something in addition to NTA. Perhaps this is unsurprising seeing as these funds have outperformed their index's for the last three years and most especially in the last year with about a 19-20% outperformance.

    Whether this share price premium to NTA persists is very hard to predict and I think is intrinsically tied into whether the managers continue to outperform their benchmark's. I had a good chat with Robbie Urquhart after last week's Barramundi meeting and was quite impressed with him. I asked if he's ever beaten the Australian index by 19% before and he said he hadn't.

    Just leaving Kingfish aside as Sam Dickie and his team have beaten the index after fees by 2.5% per annum on average for the last 3 years and the market is saying their shares are not worth a premium to NTA, my valuation model as of yesterday gave a fair value of 22.2 cps for their warrants. That's easy to value and I'm happy with that one.

    Getting back to Barramundi, this presents as a real conundrum and I am starting to think my valuation model based on NTA, (which kicked out 11.0 cps yesterday) is too conservative. Today this closed at 85 cents against a last reported NTA of 75.17 cps. That's a whopping 13% premium to NTA not counting the exercise of the warrants, (probably exercise price ~ 64 cps). While this sized premium is extremely unusual, some premium in recent months has been quiet persistent and there are reasonable grounds to think this is justified based on the managers outperformance in recent years. It would seem Robbie and his team are well capable of beating the market and the market is acknowledging that.

    At this stage I would however prefer to be conservative and say that I am very comfortable that the teams in all three funds are at the very least on average earning their fees BUT the market is telling me this is too conservative a position. All I can say based on my model is Kingfish warrants are worth at least 22.2 cps and Barramundi at least 11 cps.

    I don't think the Marlin warrants which have to be exercised by 6/11/20 are quite worth what they're trading at on the NZX. Election risk looms large there and i think it is possible the market has overlooked the dilutionary effect on the NTA of warrant holders exercising their warrants at 86 cents. I wouldn't be a buyer of Marlin shares or warrants at this point and presently don't have an interest in Marlin but I am looking for an opportunity in them down the track as i think Andrew Gardyne and his team are doing a stellar job.
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-10-2020 at 06:19 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  2. #462
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Masterton, , NZ.
    Posts
    1,761

    Default

    Given the exercise date is so close and the 86c declared they should trade at approx the ordinary share price - 86c so more like 30c

  3. #463
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    18,338

    Default

    The elephant in the room tim23 is that the last reported NTA was just on $1.10 but if all warrant holders exercise their warrants at 86 cents the new adjusted NTA will be just (4 x $1.10 + 1 x 0.86) / 5 = $1.05. The shares closed at $1.18 yesterday so this would be a 12.3% premium to NTA.

    Granted BRM closed at a similar premium to NTA of Friday and both funds are outperforming at a similar extraordinary rate, (so you could make the argument based on the current spot price of BRM this sort of premium is warranted and therefore the warrants are worth $1.18 - 0.86 = as much as 32 cents) but north of 10% price premiums to NTA for these funds have not proven to be durable in the past and I would think them unlikely to be durable in the future. Maybe a 3-4% premium to NTA is not unreasonable given their proven management expertise which suggests a fair adjusted price on warrant exercise of $1.08 - $1.09 which suggests a fair warrant price of 22.5 cps. The close yesterday at 24.5 cps given obvious near term election risk looks a little overcooked to me...but who knows, we live in extraordinary times and maybe warrant holders are expecting a strong bounce back in the US markets post election ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  4. #464
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    28

    Default

    Thanks Mr B

  5. #465
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Masterton, , NZ.
    Posts
    1,761

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The elephant in the room tim23 is that the last reported NTA was just on $1.10 but if all warrant holders exercise their warrants at 86 cents the new adjusted NTA will be just (4 x $1.10 + 1 x 0.86) / 5 = $1.05. The shares closed at $1.18 yesterday so this would be a 12.3% premium to NTA.

    Granted BRM closed at a similar premium to NTA of Friday and both funds are outperforming at a similar extraordinary rate, (so you could make the argument based on the current spot price of BRM this sort of premium is warranted and therefore the warrants are worth $1.18 - 0.86 = as much as 32 cents) but north of 10% price premiums to NTA for these funds have not proven to be durable in the past and I would think them unlikely to be durable in the future. Maybe a 3-4% premium to NTA is not unreasonable given their proven management expertise which suggests a fair adjusted price on warrant exercise of $1.08 - $1.09 which suggests a fair warrant price of 22.5 cps. The close yesterday at 24.5 cps given obvious near term election risk looks a little overcooked to me...but who knows, we live in extraordinary times and maybe warrant holders are expecting a strong bounce back in the US markets post election ?
    Probably my point was that you sell your shares just before warrants cease trading and buy the same number of warrants and then exercise them, a very profitable exercise!

  6. #466
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    68

    Default

    Yes that would have been profitable on this occasion for sure but it has not historically been this way. Today there seems to be a lot of 'new' cash going in to the market which is really pushing up the market price/NTA disconnect of these particular funds. Hold all three since IPO... hasn't always been rosey. Recent manager appointments and buying decent stocks rather than obscure 'growth punts' have lifted their game..

  7. #467
    Investments
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    425

    Default

    Originally Posted by kiora
    I have been thinking along the same lines as alokdhir for a while now regarding how it will end for all their funds.
    I invested in their KS & listed funds in the early days but switched a few years ago.

    For a portfolio for someone approaching retirement with little savings(not me) I split a third of the funds into 5 listed shares in 2007 at $10,000/share

    2007 $10,000 MLN value now $9520.It has received quarterly dividends of around
    8.5 c/year https://marlin.co.nz/assets/Uploads/...nd-History.pdf
    Adds about $10,400 ?
    Total value $19920 slightly more if dividends were reinvested
    According to the investor center value would be around $33000 now
    https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre...o-performance/
    2007 $10,000 IFT value now with DRP $46,367 plus a few other dividends
    As it turns out 2007 was a good time to invest in IFT
    https://infratil.com/for-investors/
    2007 $10,000 FPH value now with DRP $136,360

    It would be interesting to have done the same with MFT & EBO in hindsight

  8. #468
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    26

    Default

    Hi,

    Wondering if anybody can advise is there is any additional tax requirements for an individual investor for holding these or Baramundi ie. FIF(due to international holdings) ? Or essentially no different tax wise than holding KFL or another PIE fund.

    I have contacted Marlin directly but no reply yet.

    Thanks in advance.

  9. #469
    Senior Member justakiwi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    South Canterbury
    Posts
    802

    Default

    No different to KFL or BRM. FIF not an issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stylerz View Post
    Hi,

    Wondering if anybody can advise is there is any additional tax requirements for an individual investor for holding these or Baramundi ie. FIF(due to international holdings) ? Or essentially no different tax wise than holding KFL or another PIE fund.

    I have contacted Marlin directly but no reply yet.

    Thanks in advance.

  10. #470
    Guru
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,628

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stylerz View Post
    Hi,

    Wondering if anybody can advise is there is any additional tax requirements for an individual investor for holding these or Baramundi ie. FIF(due to international holdings) ? Or essentially no different tax wise than holding KFL or another PIE fund.

    I have contacted Marlin directly but no reply yet.

    Thanks in advance.
    AS they are PIE's then no requirement to include distribution on your tax return. However if your marginal tax rate is 17.5c (Gross income less than 48,000) or 10.5c (Gross income less than 14,000) then you can declare the gross amount and claim any tax paid, including imputation credits. Ignore the excluded amount on the notice.

  11. #471
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    73

    Default

    At 31/3/21 NAV was $1.18 and Share Price was $1.30
    Today NAV $1.24 and share Price $1.60

    WOW

    Obviously the warrant announcement was attractive

  12. #472
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    rural canterbury
    Posts
    966

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Not too Flash View Post
    At 31/3/21 NAV was $1.18 and Share Price was $1.30
    Today NAV $1.24 and share Price $1.60

    WOW

    Obviously the warrant announcement was attractive
    That's a big lift today. I bought in a few weeks ago to increase overseas exposure and they are already up 20%.

  13. #473
    Investments
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    425

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Not too Flash View Post
    At 31/3/21 NAV was $1.18 and Share Price was $1.30
    Today NAV $1.24 and share Price $1.60

    WOW

    Obviously the warrant announcement was attractive
    When people are ready to pay 50% over Council Value of houses then why not here also ....Value is in the mind only ...lol

    Amazing ....Wish I had to sell and buy the warrants when listed ...


    KFL is next in the line for new warrant issue ....IMHO ...maybe in next 2-3 months time thats why there also slowly slowly premium to NAV is going up
    Last edited by alokdhir; 04-05-2021 at 12:07 PM.

  14. #474
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,446

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    When people are ready to pay 50% over Council Value of houses then why not here also ....Value is in the mind only ...lol ....
    Rating valuations have very little to do with market values. Except maybe to indicate comparative values, but even then not really.

  15. #475
    Investments
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    425

    Default

    People ready to pay 10 cents extra for the free warrants allotment @ 1 for 4 shares held ...so warrant SP should be more then 40 cents to justify this transaction ..

  16. #476
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    366

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    People ready to pay 10 cents extra for the free warrants allotment @ 1 for 4 shares held ...so warrant SP should be more then 40 cents to justify this transaction ..
    Crazy how people go for this kind of thing isn't it? The managers offer you a fancy warrant and you don't even have to think about how it's you that's paying for it. I guess life's more exciting when your fund manager is moving your money between your pockets, almost like watching a skilled juggler.

  17. #477
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    68

    Default

    'going for this kind of thing' has actually worked very well for me and many others I hear on this forum.
    Are you a holder?
    There are ways of excelling with these listed funds if you know what you're doing. It's not a simple dance.
    More of a tango than a fox trot.
    I've worked it out. Maybe you haven't?

  18. #478
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    366

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    'going for this kind of thing' has actually worked very well for me and many others I hear on this forum.
    Are you a holder?
    There are ways of excelling with these listed funds if you know what you're doing. It's not a simple dance.
    More of a tango than a fox trot.
    I've worked it out. Maybe you haven't?
    The maths is very simple. If the management outperform the index by enough to overcome their high fees, you'll do better than investing in a simple index without the bells and whistles. The other tricks of giving with one hand and taking with the other (DRPs, dividends including your own capital, warrants etc) are pretty irrelevant. Who pays for your great deal on a warrant if not yourself as an existing holder?

    I don't hold but am fascinated by the psychology.

  19. #479
    Senior Member justakiwi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    South Canterbury
    Posts
    802

    Default

    I've held KFL since 2016. I have taken advantage of most warrants issues and I go with DRP. My total annual returns over that time (capital plus dividends) have consistently been in the vicinity of 23-28%. Currently sitting at 26%. I started out with 1000 shares. I have never bought any additional shares on market.Yeah, I know these figures are miniscule compared to everyone else's here, but KFL works. As do BRM and MLN. As long as they continue to perform like this, I don't care about their high fees or their money juggling. I don't have blind faith. I have informed faith and I am more than happy with how they are doing.

    Quote Originally Posted by mfd View Post
    Crazy how people go for this kind of thing isn't it? The managers offer you a fancy warrant and you don't even have to think about how it's you that's paying for it. I guess life's more exciting when your fund manager is moving your money between your pockets, almost like watching a skilled juggler.
    Last edited by justakiwi; 05-05-2021 at 08:13 AM.

  20. #480
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    366

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by justakiwi View Post
    I've held KFL since 2016. I have taken advantage of most warrants issues and I go with DRP. My total annual returns over that time (capital plus dividends) have consistently been in the vicinity of 23-28%. Currently sitting at 26%. I started out with 1000 shares. I have never bought any additional shares on market.Yeah, I know these figures are miniscule compared to everyone else's here, but KFL works. As do BRM and MLN. As long as they continue to perform like this, I don't care about their high fees or their money juggling. I don't have blind faith. I have informed faith and I am more than happy with how they are doing.
    Yes, they have had pretty decent returns recently, the management have done well. I am not really a believer that past success as a manager has any correlation to future success but we all make our own decision. Their ability to outperform their fees is the only reason you could do better here than in a cheaper index.

    Your returns could have been even higher if management had cut down on the capital escapades and reduced their fees accordingly.

    I am also interested to see what happens to the fund in a bear market given the need to spit out dividends at 8% of NAV. With a rising market this is accounted for, in a falling market it could fall hard.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •