Marlin

[tim23]

Punters love AFI eh ...always have.

I see from one of their charts they regularly trade higher that NTA

But that doesn’t automatically mean MLN should trade close to NAV does it ..hardly ever has and unlikely ever to do so.

Obviously completely irrational and makes no sense? Don’t think so, must be a lot of entrenched reasons why it does .....and what’s going change to reverse what’s reality.

Funny things can happen and one day the market might wake up and say the discount is plain dumb and there might be share price closer to NTA good enough for AFI?

[percy]

Funny things can happen and one day the market might wake up and say the discount is plain dumb and there might be share price closer to NTA good enough for AFI?

If that day should happen please let me know.
Be the day I sell all my shares.!..lol.

[tim23]

If that day should happen please let me know.
Be the day I sell all my shares.!..lol.

Yes I don't necessarily disagree - but sometimes value is staring you in the face and you wish you had acted.

[percy]

Yes I don't necessarily disagree - but sometimes value is staring you in the face and you wish you had acted.

Value is sometimes misleading,it can be hidden or it can be real or fake.
Today I watched an Australian share I was considering buying, ECX drop 40.8%, as earnings growth is only expected to be between 12-17% when they projected earnings growth of between 27-30%.
A lot of value suddenly disappeared.

[kiora]

Funny things can happen and one day the market might wake up and say the discount is plain dumb and there might be share price closer to NTA good enough for AFI?

Actually SP =NTA-value of the cost of the management contract

[Beagle]

Yes I don't necessarily disagree - but sometimes value is staring you in the face and you wish you had acted.

One of the reasons I got in is I am finding it hard to find adequate diversification on the NZX in stocks which I feel are good or fair value. I have repeatedly heard a number of expert commentators on CNBC say that the US market S&P 500 is now trading at about the average of the last 5 years (forward PE about 16.5 times). So many experts have said this I am prepared to take it at face value now.

I think you can find value there on that multiple a lot easier than here. I don't have the time, expertise or inclination to pick individual stocks on the U.S. markets.
The discount this trades at compared to the NTA and the relatively attractive attributes of the warrants cover a lot of evils in terms of management and performance fees in my opinion.

[jg8512]

hi Beagle
One way I keep a track on the valuation of the US market, and subparts of it, is by looking at the reports from Vanguard. They report a whole raft of valuation metrics for each index: S&P 500, small-cap, mid cap, value, growth, etc. I can't post a link as you have to agree to some conditions (but it's free, found via www.vanguard.com). For me, it's a really cheap and easy way to see the overall valuation of the US market components on a consistent basis.

Eg, today for the VTI (a measure of the entire US share market) Vanguard report:

Number of stocks 3654
Median market cap $64billion
Price/earnings ratio 20.8x
Price/book ratio 3.0x
Return on equity 15%
Earnings growth rate 8.2%
Foreign holdings 0%
Fund total net assets $702.1 billion

PS. The P/e ratio is down from 24x at the start of 2017 - earnings growth expectations are stable since then.

[Beagle]

hi Beagle
One way I keep a track on the valuation of the US market, and subparts of it, is by looking at the reports from Vanguard. They report a whole raft of valuation metrics for each index: S&P 500, small-cap, mid cap, value, growth, etc. I can't post a link as you have to agree to some conditions (but it's free, found via www.vanguard.com). For me, it's a really cheap and easy way to see the overall valuation of the US market components on a consistent basis.

Eg, today for the VTI (a measure of the entire US share market) Vanguard report:

Number of stocks 3654
Median market cap $64billion
Price/earnings ratio 20.8x
Price/book ratio 3.0x
Return on equity 15%
Earnings growth rate 8.2%
Foreign holdings 0%
Fund total net assets $702.1 billion

PS. The P/e ratio is down from 24x at the start of 2017 - earnings growth expectations are stable since then.

Thanks, that makes sense as a lot of the NASDAQ stocks would be trading at vastly higher multiples, (often no earnings) than S&P 500.
As you suggest the earnings multiple has come down a lot this year what with the market ostensibly tracking sideways and the corporate tax rate cut.
Chinese markets down 20% this year on fear of trade war. I wish Trump would just go on holiday to the beach already and stop tweeting his nonsense.

[Beagle]

Better fishing this week for the Marlin team, NAV back over $1.04 as of a couple of days ago. $Kiwi tanked about 1% today (for reasons unknown) so NAV effectively about $1.05 today based on known info. Tempted to "hound up" some more warrants...might wait till NAV hits $1.06, (maybe next week ?), then go fishing again.

[winner69]

MLN warrants on fire ...looks like every man and his dog wants toncash in on this certainty