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Thread: Marlin

  1. #541
    Vision over Visibility
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    I try to keep in mind the type of asset that they, they exposure they give me are and how they fit into overall portfolio at risk.

    The NTA and SP is reflective of the core holdings (and sentiment for the stock and markets overall)

    So, I ask myself are they investing wisely in underpinning Companies that have a long term future? What's their rationale, does it stack up? There is always going to up and downs as equity shifts between sectors and growth and value...so how are the managing this? What's the largest holdings? why?

    In the latest March update they've strengthened holding in Microsoft, PayPal, Salesforce on the SP dips. So, do I agree...is this a wise use of my money? Meta/Paypal have been smashed with market aversion to growth and regulatory risks, is this fair or an over-reaction? Will they bounce?

    On par, will continue to hold and add on weakness - provided the answers above meet my personal investment mid-long term thesis on Orgs and sectors.

  2. #542
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    But would you pay $1.18 for assets valued at around $1.05 ? (assuming no material change in NTA between now and May).
    I'm not sure If want to give Marlin extra cash of approximately 13c with each exercised warrant merely to be banked (I suspect) and given back to me in annual distributions.

  3. #543
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    First time in history of warrants exercise at Fisher funds they are asking holders to pay more then NAV of the head shares which will actually lead to NAV going up at the cost of new holders ...normally it happens other way round thus encouraging existing holders to exercise warrants or their holdings get diluted with NAV going down ...But this time round existing holders are better off not converting at premium and selling warrants in market and let someone else buy at premium thus increasing NAV of their existing holdings

    Very interesting times we live in . But this will help existing holders get some benefit of the premium of SP

  4. #544
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    The share price is what you can sell the shares at
    The NAV although of interest is irrelevant
    For a long time the NAV exceeded the share price and the market didn't seem to care

    The sharemarket is a peculair beast and doesn't always follow convention

  5. #545
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    Nav exceeding SP is more understandable in a closed fund as thats the discount for cashing out ...SP at premium to NAV is more difficult to digest or justify

  6. #546
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    they just added a big stake in netflix last quarter according to there update ... the big fall in netflix wont help this quarters returns?
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #547
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    they just added a big stake in netflix last quarter according to there update ... the big fall in netflix wont help this quarters returns?
    i know I just read their release - gulp!! only 2.5% of the marlin portfolio but doesn't do much by way of giving confidence to their investment strategy

  8. #548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiordland Moose View Post
    i know I just read their release - gulp!! only 2.5% of the marlin portfolio but doesn't do much by way of giving confidence to their investment strategy
    I really wonder if their portfolio is fit for purpose at this point ? Certainly not at a premium to NTA ! I choose not to put significant funds in January with their private wealth division which was going to be invested half and half into their Australasian growth (basically, BRM shares) and International growth funds (MLN shares), albeit on their unlisted fund platform at NTA, not at a 20% premium to NTA in their listed platforms. I am exceptionally pleased I didn't proceed and see no rush to do this going forward.

    Marlin and to a significant extent Barramundi are loaded towards tech and the NASDAQ is now down more than 20% and in a bear market. Both have very badly underperformed the market in the last quarter and I expect that will continue in 2022 as the reckoning process with the huge valuations many of these tech companies trade on, plays itself out.

    To your point. Netflix down 38% just in the last week ! I don't think they are seeing the wood for the trees at present.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-04-2022 at 12:07 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #549
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I really wonder if their portfolio is fit for purpose at this point ? Certainly not at a premium to NTA ! I choose not to put significant funds in January with their private wealth division which was going to be invested half and half into their Australasian growth (basically, BRM shares) and International growth funds (MLN shares), albeit on their unlisted fund platform at NTA, not at a 20% premium to NTA in their listed platforms. I am exceptionally pleased I didn't proceed and see no rush to do this going forward.

    Marlin and to a significant extent Barramundi are loaded towards tech and the NASDAQ is now down more than 20% and in a bear market. Both have very badly underperformed the market in the last quarter and I expect that will continue in 2022 as the reckoning process with the huge valuations many of these tech companies trade on, plays itself out.

    To your point. Netflix down 38% just in the last week ! I don't think they are seeing the wood for the trees at present.
    agreed
    would be easy to replicate their strategy directly, if one wanted to. half of sharsies users are already doing that without paying their historical premium to nta.

  10. #550
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    Agree and Meta is another large holding down 44% YTD and likely to go down more

    >10% of portfolio is invested in China tech co's Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings which have huge geopolitical risks.

    The premium to NTA is unwarranted. I guess the premium will naturally diminish as yields increase anyway

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