Fact is this fund has more potential than the other two , the high kiwi dollar combined with weaker world markets means stocks will be bought at more realistic prices than was the case with Barramundi.
Barramundi listed at the top of the market. This had the advantage that everyone wanted to buy them (irrational) so the price was high (overvalued) but made Fisher look good.
Marlin on the other hand currently makes Fisher look bad , but is undervalued (nobody wants a bargain - irrational )
The big mistake is the thought process of the average investor who would rather buy something expensive and popular than somnething cheap and unloved
Fact is this fund has more potential than the other two , the high kiwi dollar combined with weaker world markets means stocks will be bought at more realistic prices than was the case with Barramundi.
Barramundi listed at the top of the market. This had the advantage that everyone wanted to buy them (irrational) so the price was high (overvalued) but made Fisher look good.
Marlin on the other hand currently makes Fisher look bad , but is undervalued (nobody wants a bargain - irrational )
The big mistake is the thought process of the average investor who would rather buy something expensive and popular than somnething cheap and unloved
The perception is reality.
BRM did not list at the top of the market. BRM has however invested at the top in some stocks and they are now hurting something horrible. Notably Credit corp. The Australian market has powered on since October 2006 when BRM listed.
Marlin has more potential because of weaker markets and high NZ$? High NZ$ has been around for the last 3 years. Weaker markets? Not really as offshore markets have been powering to new highs. So Marlin will be investing near the top?
Fact is that Fisher funds have no expertise or competitive edge offshore.
How can a stock that for all we know hasn't made an investment yet other than have it collecting interest in a bank be worth 20% less than it was when listed? How on earth could perception be reality if we don't have the facts about how & where the money is invested. Perception isn't factual.
What we're seeing is the dumping of stock by investors who hoped to stag the share for a profit, into a market which has few buyers at the moment.
I'm still watching and waiting.
How can a stock that for all we know hasn't made an investment yet other than have it collecting interest in a bank be worth 20% less than it was when listed? How on earth could perception be reality if we don't have the facts about how & where the money is invested. Perception isn't factual.
Markets price perceptions into share prices. That's why you have stocks on higher multiples than others - because the markets like the management, products, strategy etc.
BRM initially listed at a premium because the markets thought that Fisher Fund will perform well in Australia. It hasn't and in fact, BRM has severely underperformed the Australian market. Now BRM is priced at a discount.
Marlin has been heading lower because the market now has low confidence in Fisher Funds' ability to swim in the offshore markets. It's a little minnow in a sea of sharks.
The perception is now reality - how confident are you now that Marlin can perform beyond Australasia if it cannot do well in Australia? If you are confident, mortgage your house and put the money into Marlin. You are getting it at a nice discount. The discount represents the market's perception that Fisher Funds will perform badly. That's what you are buying.
If you are right, the discount will move up to a premium - you get a double upside of great performance from Marlin plus a closing of the gap between market price and NAV.
Question - what is Marlin's competitive edge in the offshore markets?
See that all three of Carmels funds are trading at about 20% below NPV ..... whatever punters are perceiving seems to be pretty consistent .. with no particular fund being picked on for special attention
See that all three of Carmels funds are trading at about 20% below NPV ..... whatever punters are perceiving seems to be pretty consistent .. with no particular fund being picked on for special attention
generally across the board these types of listed funds tend to trade at a discount sometimes as much as 30% or more. There have been one or two exceptions i can think of such as Platinum Capital (PMC) but this is an exception rather than the norm.
Was always going to settle below issue value.
Whether it is good value now depends on the skills of the investment team
Bear, When Platinum Cap was listed it did so at a discount of some big % but as time went on it regained its issue price and then rose as its performance warranted it.
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Originally Posted by ratkin
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