Trade Of The Week

[peat]

I set my demo a/c up in pounds

I made 52 pounds profit (not incl funding) on 100 BUND at +72 pips
so I guess its a bit less than a pound per pip per 100 bund

the BUND would only seem to move 100 pips per day occasionally - mostly less.

[dumbass]

watching at the moment but starting to look like there may possibly be a usd rally setting up for next week

i will post dailys on majors and see if anyones in agreement

[peat]

i was thinking this with USD/CHF and I had a small long from 1.0909 on the 29th which was up 50 ish at one stage but I stopped it out at break even.
To me the break through 1.0835 y'day signalled that there is more to come on the downside. or at least that its not the time to long yet.
I will want to see a rally that retraces between 78 and 99% without going to 101% if you get what I mean kinda like what it did from the Nov 22 low to Jan 04th but then on Jan 14th it hit a new low so , in my terms , failed , as it did again y'day when it broke the Jan16th low. all imo of course.

[dumbass]

eur dailies

uptrend stalling

looks like d wave may be done at triangle boundary

3 wave decline in e wave which typically will under or overshoot lower boundary

divergence on hourlies

retracement would be a good opp to buy in for run to 150++

[dumbass]

in agreement with you peat on usdchf only slight hint of divergence makes me think it could rally

have to show mrs dumbass a good time tonight so will post others tommorrow for your input

also big big night ,non farm payrolls which will set direction for next week

[dumbass]

suggested usd rally may be underway

i would use this retracement to enter long positions for what could be a good run north

d wave looks to be complete at 14950

loose evening star pattern and divergence on rsi

so looking for entry reversal pattern on d wave highest probability area around 14580

this is 23.6 of aug nov wave 3 and 61.8 wave d

[dumbass]

similar trade on cable

looking to buy into this retracement , highest probabilty 19575 for run to at least 2 ++

[Steve]

suggested usd rally may be underway

i would use this retracement to enter long positions for what could be a good run north

d wave looks to be complete at 14950

loose evening star pattern and divergence on rsi

so looking for entry reversal pattern on d wave highest probability area around 14580

this is 23.6 of aug nov wave 3 and 61.8 wave d

DA, thanks for pointing me here from the EURUSD thread.

Do you always determine your start point historically? I guess you must, or how else do you know it is a major point?

I am guessing that once you have the first 2 points, that provides a platform for the future estimated points?

Also, what RSI are you using and why did you pick specific variable?

Thanks
Steve

[dumbass]

hi steve

rsi is just the default setting in metastock ,14 period
i like divergences but other that not much for indicators

starting points for elliot wave counts will be from signifiacant turning points
but its not that simple as the price extreme may not be the orthodox top

just an example to clarify

a 5 wave advance will be corrected by three waves down but part of the three wave correction could have a new high in there, so the price high is not the orthodox top
this is an expanded flat or combination of corrective waves

currently eur usd in a corrective wave 4 which started in november
it looks corrective because the waves overlap and its a triangle shape
it didnt look like a top has formed so i believe there will be a fifth wave up to take out 150 ++ in a fifth wave and then a big correction should occur
this is only a prefered count and there will be other counts which will satisfy all the elliot wave rules so you must continually review your count as it unfolds.

hope this helps a bit steve happy to answer any other questions

[dumbass]

action heading towards lower triangle border

this wave down is a 3 wave which will likely reverse around 144 for long entry

waiting for confirmation before entering long