CCP Creditcorp

[ratkin]

So many people thought this was a very good company only months ago.
Presumably fisher and the other managers would of done site tours , talked to the bosses etc, yet surely they would of known how bad things were.

That why i think there must have been something criminal happening, even if it only accounting fraud. To have such glowing annual report followed by all these downgrades just dosent make sense

[soulman]

Soulman -- and not too long after an independent director resigned ... because he had too much on his plate ........ he knew when to leave eh

Losing trade 1st time around ..... just had another go ..... I know its punting but this time I think i'm onto a winnerthis time around

No winner here. Closed on the days low. Huge volume of more than 30% capital traded.

Holding this overnight are not for the faint hearted. A rebound maybe. Takeover also a possibility as well as management BO.

[Footsie]

I saw that KW - UGL brutal and they reported good numbers

[soulman]

It wasn't that good number Footsie. I just bought UGL last week and sold some on Friday. I saw the UGL website on Friday that they are reporting this Monday, hence kept 65% for potential upside.

Boy, I didn't have a chance today. The numbers are not good. Operating CF are low. The last year number were affected by the PPP one-off, so don't see the 51% increase as what they are. Hence, the numbers are not what it seems. EPS growth was only about 14% for the half, although UGL always flagged a stronger second half.

The numbers are not a profit downgrade but people expect more. This might be an overreaction but if it drop another $1 tomorrow, I would not be suprise.

[winner69]

Soulman .. 2nd trade was at least profitable but down slightly for the day ... things were pretty ruthless in the last half hour weren't they

Hadn't noticed UGL action - I'll put that on the watchlist with a longer term view even though PRG was my choice in that sector a while ago and that ain't done too well lately either.

[winner69]

Last accounts for CCP had borrowings at $125M (due repayment early 2009 I think) supported by shareholders equity of $66M ........ with profits (and presumably cash flows under pressure that is not a good look..

Half year accounts will make an interesting read

[drworm]

I think the question on everyone's mind is: how much are the debt ledgers on the books are actually worth? Because if the actual value doesn't cover the long term debt, and the bank(s) feel uneasy about lending a $43mil market cap (price = $1) company $125mil in loans and starts asking for some back... it's going to be in some real trouble.

[steve fleming]

Huntleys are pretty blunt with their views today:

We downgrade our recommendation to Sell and strictly advise against any speculative investment in CCP. Investors brave enough to be holding the stock at this stage should exit on market. The lack of earnings certainty and poor disclosure makes forecasts, price triggers and valuation estimates inappropriate.

We see more downside in the shareprice despite trading almost 90% below its rolling year high. Lack of confidence in management and high levels of gearing could force ledger divestments. Our main fear is a suspension in the trading of securities with investors potentially sidelined until the dust settles. Repcol (RPC) is a perfect example.

[winner69]

Huntleys are pretty blunt with their views today:

We downgrade our recommendation to Sell and strictly advise against any speculative investment in CCP. Investors brave enough to be holding the stock at this stage should exit on market. The lack of earnings certainty and poor disclosure makes forecasts, price triggers and valuation estimates inappropriate.

We see more downside in the shareprice despite trading almost 90% below its rolling year high. Lack of confidence in management and high levels of gearing could force ledger divestments. Our main fear is a suspension in the trading of securities with investors potentially sidelined until the dust settles. Repcol (RPC) is a perfect example.

Steve -- interesting they mention Repcol - it appears likely that some of the repco; ;edgers that CCP purchased might be one of the causes of the problem.

It was when Repcol got into trouble I did a very thorough analysis of CCP reported cah flows and the movement of the value of the ledgers in the balance sheet and didn't like what I saw - it was the same pattern i had picked up in CLH before they started reporting large profit downgrades.

That was the reason why I sold out at $10 and while cursing missing out on another 30% sure am happy with my analysis - it was a great ride while it lasted.

Amazing world really .... CCP floated in 2000 .... good steady earner for a few years ..... starting expanding in a big way about 2003 and 2004 ...... profits continued to grow strongly ..... market just loved them ........... shareprice gets to just under $13 a year ago ...... and it all turns to custard very quickly and back to under $1 it goes .... truely amazing

OK Steve --- I'll take Huntleys advice and won't do any gambling with the play money with CCP

[winner69]

One last comment on CCP for today

PHAEDRUS probably would have been out of CCP last June/July at around $10 .... and would never found a reason to buy after the first downgrade in November

Just thought I'd mention that