NZD v Aussie over next 3-9 months

[David Hardman]

I've got to move a reasonable sum of NZD to AUD within the next 3-9 months.

What's peoples view on the rate over this period?

Cross currently at .84

Is NZ at the top of their interest rate cycle?

Aussie may have a couple of .25 hikes within the next 6 months.. Should see AUD strengthen..

???

[the machine]

I've got to move a reasonable sum of NZD to AUD within the next 3-9 months.

What's peoples view on the rate over this period?

Cross currently at .84

Is NZ at the top of their interest rate cycle?

Aussie may have a couple of .25 hikes within the next 6 months.. Should see AUD strengthen..

???

buy euro instead

M

[peat]

i believe that the AUD should stay relatively more strong than the Kiwi.
Esp as and when the aversion to risk rises in the general climate, and its pretty obvious there is a bit of a flight to safety happening currently.

This cross has already moved a chunk tho. eg AUD/NZD gone from low of 1.10 to 1.20 and so there remains a chance it could correct back to 1.14 or 1.12 even. IF and its a big if that happens it may well be your best opportunity in this 9mth timeframe. If however 1.21 gets taken out convincingly then we're going higher.
The best approach with these situations is to move it in a few bites. bit by bit - you have time so you can show some patience and if there are any favourable movements you can take advantage of those in the next tranche.

[arco]

David

There are potential signs of a developing top in AUD/NZD IMO,
therefore scaling in could be the way to go.

Potential targets once we see the confirmed turnaround could be
1.1690/1740, then 1450/1500, and possibly even 1260.

If for some reason the action heads higher in the short term these
targets are subjest to change.

rgds -arco

[dumbass]

have studied chart and came up with the following any comments on top would be appreciated arco

alternate bat with reversal in prz

top printed a dark cloud cover

bearish divergence on q stick with zero line repelling retracement

todays print would loosely be a beaish engulfing if you viewed prior candle as doji .
(normally a white candle and then an engulfing black but two black are ok if its a doji)

targets as you mentioned

[dumbass]

David

There are potential signs of a developing top in AUD/NZD IMO,
therefore scaling in could be the way to go.

Potential targets once we see the confirmed turnaround could be
1.1690/1740, then 1450/1500, and possibly even 1260.

If for some reason the action heads higher in the short term these
targets are subjest to change.

rgds -arco

800pips

come on 26 pips shy of low , defintley the crown is slipping

hail to the king

[arco]

.......actually it went down as low as 1245 at 11am today (15 pips out..........thats inflation for you).


...............occasionally the crystal ball actually works

[AMR]

Darnn....it seems my decision to short the aussie was a correct direction play, just horribly wrong on the timeframe.

[Joshuatree]

Hi folks . The chart im looking at (National Bank) goes back to 93.The NZ dollar is re at its lowest since then. Ive been taking profits in Aus stocks and a few losses and bringing back $A to $Nz re @ $A 74c, i think this correction has a way to go..Hoping to buy back in to aus stocks cheaper post June QE2 and clean up on a rising kiwi against the $Aus. Is anyone else is doing this too and what your thoughts are and if not be int to read your views too,cheers.

[Pumice]

RBA is a lot more hawkish than RBNZ.
NZ interest rates are effectively negative. I think we have a while to go before we are fundamentally in a strong position for there to be any currency and interest rate gains.