NZD v Aussie over next 3-9 months

[dumbass]

i hope mr hardman has moved his kiwi dollars over to aus

chart entering an accelerated phase of kiwi weakness against aussie

minimum target 121 but most likely going higher and probably quite quickly

750 pips if anybody had the patience

had a few nibbles on the way up

one of the best trending crosses

seems by the nature of the carry trades when one of these currencies is in vogue the other ones heading for the dog box

1200 pips in a couple of months with no sign of abating

[dumbass]

maybe top in on aussie against kiwi , text book butterfly

5 waves down on shorter time frame

looking for a correction to enter short

[dumbass]

looking like retracement may be close to starting

if this count is correct 5 th wave has extended which is often fully retraced

might have a nibble on way up

[dumbass]

a chart for the good Dr

entered on trend line break at 12260 sl 12140 +80 pips

5 waves down is an indication trend for aud nzd is down but have taken opportunity

to trade retracement ,target set at 4th wave area and 61.8 retracement.

you have missed entry to go long now, however price may return and test upper channel

boundary which may provide good entry.

[Dr_Who]

I am thinking of shorting NZD against the AUD at around 81.5. Whats your view DA?

[dumbass]

its been in a consolidation phase for a couple of weeks now between 81 and 82

why not wait for a breakout , my feeling is it will break to downside.

or if you are sure you want to enter short, try to position a short at top of channel eg 82

and stop loss just above channel


good luck

[Dr_Who]

NZD have recently rallied against the AUD. I am thinking that NZD may weaken coming towards and into the sept 11 rates cut announcement.

[Footsie]

logically one would expect a pull back. after such a sharp move up to 82c

AUD/USD fall has been too hard...

I'd expect the RBNZ to be pretty bearish on the NZ economy and signal more rate cuts on the way.

RBA GDP data today will be key for setting the move in the next week , follow that up with another rate cut on the kiwi and we may be heading back to retest 77.50

break above 82.40 would veto all of the above.

[dumbass]

My feeling is a few more storm clouds on the nzd outlook than aud,

both economies weakening but nz probably a little softer which should mean aus will

strengthen.

if you time it well should be a profitable trade.

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the advice guys.

This is my first venture into FX.