Windflow Technology Limited (wtl)

[ratkin]

What are the forumites views on this company.

Will be attending the information evening at russley golf club on wednesday , would like to have some probing questions ready.

Also is this likely to be a better or worse investment than new zealand windfarms?

[rimu]

They have quite an innovative product, which could be very good or very bad.

For a company at such an early stage, $3.20 per share seems expensive to me.

Options will be exercised at $3.30 about this time next year, which if I understand things correctly, will stop the sp from going above that until at least then.

But what do i know...

[Codfish]

After a brief look I don’t think the concept is well thought out, there are two problems I can see.

Firstly, there is an assumption of excess wind power at ‘peak-blow’ which can be used to split water (a process that uses a huge amount of electricity). Excess wind power may be a problem in the future but at the moment wind is just a zephyr on the grid.

Secondly, because sun and wind are complementary power sources, solar technologies can potentially do the job better.

A technology that smoothes output towards peak output (without using up electricity) is my pick to succeed when ‘Peak-Blow’ becomes a problem.

It seems overly complicated and based more on wishful thinking than realities. But it was just a five minute glance, I could easily be missing something.

CF

[tobo]

Codfish - you are talking about WHN, right?

[tobo]

I've been thinking about WTL for a year or so. (as a LT investment)
Pros:
-any kind of energy is only going to be increasingly supply/demand driven (peak oil etc. vs. Chindians with fridges and air conditioning)
-sustainable energy: moreso especially if global warming affects coal use
-narrow exposure to wind energy only (vs a big utility with some sustainable generation)
-ingenious(?) NZ design
Cons
-NZ technology manufacturer competing internationally with the big boys (Vestas, and lots of others all over the world targetting the same thing). (think Rakon etc)
-quite a punt on a unique design - why have the competitors not gone this way
-so far "selling to themselves" ie relationship with NWF
-restricted to manufacture, rather than exposure to the energy price market.
Price: not been that volatile (through recent tumultuous months) so no obvious bargain day, although recent decline to 3.20 from 3.80 highs

I had thought it better to go for NWF, as they have 40% of WTL(?), therefore gets an investment in both. (And NWF has ranged around 1.10-1.30, curr 1.20 since last fundraising)
- - just my thoughts. DYOR

[Codfish]

Codfish - you are talking about WHN, right?

Yes, quite right. Sorry guys, I just followed the link without taking time to read the thread properly.

If WTL have come up with a cost effective solution to gusting wind they may be on to a winner. I can't see how to judge that from the armchair but the phrase Torque Limiting Gearbox doesn't conjure up the image of a machine that will run for tens of thousands of hours trouble free.

CF

[Raven]

I used to be a WTL holder. Sold out at $3.80 for a tidy profit when I heard the news there were problems with the 5 existing turbines. The technology in my mind is good as far as wind generators go with several distinct advantages over other suppliers. I have been keeping an eye on things with the idea of possibly buying back in. There are a few things that have stopped me:

- The current turbines are operating outside there noise warranty (rights prospectus)
- IEC cert still looks a while off (8 months or so suggested in rights prospectus). This is key to me as without this certification it's incredible unlikely that any major purchases will be made.
- US patent on torque limiting gear box runs out in 2011. I don't know much about patent law but I get the feeling WTL needs to get moving if they want to establish a foot hold in the market before this patent expires.

On the plus side WTL has demonstrated their engineering skills on previous problems and I'm pretty confident they'll fix the current issues. I think once IEC cert is acquired WTL could be on the move but I have difficulty picking when that might be and hence what price is right to get back in. I've taken a wait and see stance before putting any money in at the moment.

[ratkin]

I had thought it better to go for NWF, as they have 40% of WTL(?), therefore gets an investment in both. (And NWF has ranged around 1.10-1.30, curr 1.20 since last fundraising)
- - just my thoughts. DYOR

That sounds like a good plan , that way an interest in both generation and the technology that provides it

[mondograss]

Other way around chaps, WTL owns a chunk of NWF.

[Raven]

NWF does have the protection of a warranty on the WTL turbines. Good for NWF given the relatively unproven tech. Potentially not so good for WTL.