PBP - Probiotec

[tommy]

3 mil equates to about 6c per share. Shares dropped by that much at one stage today,
too much of an over-reaction imo.

Big buyer of almost 1 mil shares just appeared on market thinks so too.

What I am worried about is NOT ONLY the potential damages (legal costs and damages claimed) BUT ALSO loss of sales (revenue!) in terms of clients taking their business to someone else (Pfizer and some other customers who may suspect quality control at PBP).


Anyway, "The subsidiary acquired the raw material from a reputable Australian third party supplier specifically approved by Pfizer to supply the material" so I hope they will be able to resolve this matter amicably. In the meantime, I have better use of my capital in other areas :-)

[Footsie]

who is the mystery 1m bidder?

will be interesting to see over the next few days if they are real.

PBP is a good cash earner and a potential takeover target...

contracted revenue is low margin and they are now focusing on own branded good high margin and export.


Happy to hold.

[The Big Ease]

30% down from its peak after a 73% increase in earnings.
is the claim the only thing hanging over this stock?

[Footsie]

Its still the last of the Opes stock

OPes had over 800k..... and for whatever reason its taken them this long to get it out.

I THINK.... that might be the last of their line.....


Saw a big display of Celeb slim in an NZ pharmacy today.... Im told its selling well
Certainly if you read about it on the blogs.
http://www.productreview.com.au/show...?item_id=48944

[macduffy]

Its still the last of the Opes stock

OPes had over 800k..... and for whatever reason its taken them this long to get it out.

I THINK.... that might be the last of their line.....


Saw a big display of Celeb slim in an NZ pharmacy today.... Im told its selling well
Certainly if you read about it on the blogs.
http://www.productreview.com.au/show...?item_id=48944

I think you're right - the Opes holding has had a big, depressing effect on a very thinly traded stock.
Under continuous disclosure, any bad news should have been announced by now?
At least today's quotes are a little firmer.

[Footsie]

I still think 100 110 120

who cares...... its the value in 3 years..... right of $3.00+

[The Big Ease]

my concern is more around the general sentiment in the consumer market, rather than the company itself.
it looks shaky beyond the next 3-6 months.

inflation is going at a cracking speed. the rba has left rates in the belief that this is the peak before it moderates to acceptable levels. if they are wrong, which they have been in a few instances recently, it will require another couple of taps on the brakes. i think we are at the threshold of what people can cope with.

pbp is at full speed growth, good strategy and seemingly executing very well.
cant ask for more than that!

$3.00 easily within 2 years.
they could get that with this year's growth in earnings and a reasonable PE re-rating to 15.
but i still have this nagging doubt in the back of my mind.

[thereslifeafter87]

Any re-rating on a PE basis will depend on how much they are frontloading earnings by capitalising product development costs (not disclosed in the HY). They've done this in the past to make NPAT look better than it is, and probably also to comply with banking covenants.

At some point those capitalised costs need to be amortised (assuming celebrity slim isn't a runaway success forever).

[The Big Ease]

i also follow pme, though not invested atm.
they used to treat all rnd as an expense but have been forced to capitalise much of it due to accounting regulations (?) is this related to IFRS/sarb-ox.

good point tla87.

[Footsie]

TLA 87

IF that were the case then they wouldnt have such a good cashflow.

This company has the best +ve cashflow i have seen in a small cap.